OptionProbability
OpenAI holds a live, publicly streamed launch event on release day.
Pro tier gets access on the same day it’s announced
Multimodal model
OpenAI publishes a model card for GPT-5 on release day.
Plus tier gets access on the same day it’s announced
GPT-5 mini released
API access on release day
GPT-5 scores >=86% on GPQA
OpenAI reports GPT-5 has a >3000 ELO on Codeforces
Native advanced voice mode announced
Free tier gets access on the same day it’s announced
Native image generation announced
GPT-5 nano released
GPT-5 costs <=$8 per 1 million output tokens on API
Release makes front page of NYT
>= 10% Tier 4 FrontierMath score
>= 1 Million Token Context
>=3 underlying models in routing
Blog post out before 10AM PST on release day
OpenAI reports GPT-5 scores >80% on SWE-bench Verified with one pass
GPT-5 mini scores >=86% on GPQA
Sam Altman mentions x-risk during release day
OpenAI explicitly claims it is AGI
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