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Prediction markets for Volatility

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

80.14%chance

6116884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2008

498

Bitcoin $150k By the end of 2025?

May 27, 7:39 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

38%chance

211484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

100

Will the "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market trading volume exceed M$10 million before Q4, 2025?

Jan 11, 11:09 AMOct 1, 10:59 PM

37.52%chance

61410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

775

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

838

Will Bitcoin fall more than 50% from its all time high by Jan 1, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.39%chance

13980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1799

556

Michael's To-Read List

Mar 12, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9347

OptionProbability

[Undisclosed Book for ACX Book Review Contest]

Advanced Portfolio Management

Option Volatility & Pricing

Njal's Saga

The Bostonians

The History of the Peloponnesian War

Middlemarch

Winds of Winter, lmao

The Histories

Dune Books 2, 3 & 4

Children of Time

Romance of the Three Kingdoms

Catch-22

The Crying of Lot 49

The Storm Before the Storm

88

85

83

83

76

76

76

69

66

64

63

50

50

50

50

US unemployment above 5% in 2025?

Jun 9, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.58%chance

15339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

49

Google algorithm update causes 50% SERP volatility by November 15, 2025?

Aug 5, 10:00 PMNov 15, 9:59 PM

54.8%chance

2121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

908

PVV wins at least 30 seats at the 2025 Dutch Elections?

Jul 7, 12:10 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

48.58%chance

7101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

When will the 10-year (US) Treasury yield reach 5 per cent?

Jun 29, 7:58 PMJul 1, 7:56 PM

683

OptionProbability

July 1, 2026 or after, or never

Jan 1 - June 30 (2026)

Oct 1 - Dec 31 (2025)

June 29 - Sep 30 (2025)

42

25

18

16

Lithium Hydroxide above $8 USD/kg at EOY2025?

Jun 30, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.47%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

In May 2028 in Sweden, daily price and supply/demand volatility in electricity will be higher than May 2023

Jun 2, 7:40 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

63.58%chance

528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

173

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