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Prediction markets for Volatility

Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in June 2026?

May 31, 1:21 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

99%chance

3615776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

Will Bitcoin go below $30,000 before reaching a new all time high?

Jan 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.44%chance

147890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1321

757

Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?

Apr 21, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.93%chance

102438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1944

515

Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?

Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM

8.96%chance

212084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

406

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

838

Will Europe fall before Bitcoin?

Dec 12, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.2%chance

8669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

455

Will samarium oxide prices increase by more than 25% globally by Q2 2026?

Feb 21, 12:03 PMAug 20, 12:03 PM

50.17%chance

4558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

899

Will Israel hold an election in 2027?

Jun 11, 5:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.35%chance

10381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

875

Michael's To-Read List

Mar 12, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9368

OptionProbability

Advanced Portfolio Management

[Undisclosed Book for ACX Book Review Contest]

Option Volatility & Pricing

Njal's Saga

The Bostonians

The History of the Peloponnesian War

Middlemarch

Winds of Winter, lmao

The Histories

Dune Books 2, 3 & 4

Children of Time

Romance of the Three Kingdoms

Catch-22

The Crying of Lot 49

The Storm Before the Storm

85

83

83

83

76

76

76

69

66

64

63

50

50

50

50

NymN Stock (Permanent)

Jan 13, 3:12 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

453

OptionProbability

YES

NO

111

109

In May 2028 in Sweden, daily price and supply/demand volatility in electricity will be higher than May 2023

Jun 2, 7:40 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

63.58%chance

528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

173

Visualization of high-volatility days on Polyoptions by EoY 2026

Dec 13, 3:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

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