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Prediction markets for Volatility

Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $75 by the end of 2026?

Aug 5, 12:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.97%chance

4117263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4374

229

Will Bitcoin go below $30,000 before reaching a new all time high?

Jan 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.56%chance

249243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1706

586

Will Israel hold an election in 2027?

Jun 11, 5:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.21%chance

192849

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

830

Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?

Apr 21, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.93%chance

102438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1944

515

What will Daniel Lord’s debt be on January 1st, 2027?

Aug 23, 5:33 AMAug 24, 3:59 AM

141689

OptionProbability

10,000 - 19,999

5,000 - 9,999

20,000 - 29,999

30,000 - 39,999

40,000 - 50,000

0 - 4,999

Above 50,000

24

20

13

12

12

11

8

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

838

Will Databricks IPO before 2028?

Oct 1, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.45%chance

131031

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

809

Will Europe fall before Bitcoin?

Dec 12, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.2%chance

8669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

455

Michael's To-Read List

Mar 12, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9368

OptionProbability

Advanced Portfolio Management

[Undisclosed Book for ACX Book Review Contest]

Option Volatility & Pricing

Njal's Saga

The Bostonians

The History of the Peloponnesian War

Middlemarch

Winds of Winter, lmao

The Histories

Dune Books 2, 3 & 4

Children of Time

Romance of the Three Kingdoms

Catch-22

The Crying of Lot 49

The Storm Before the Storm

85

83

83

83

76

76

76

69

66

64

63

50

50

50

50

Visualization of high-volatility days on Polyoptions by EoY 2026

Dec 13, 3:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

6260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

58

Will the VIPER Rover land on the Moon by 2030?

Jul 15, 4:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.31%chance

6221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

997

In May 2028 in Sweden, daily price and supply/demand volatility in electricity will be higher than May 2023

Jun 2, 7:40 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

63.58%chance

528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

173

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