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Prediction markets for Volatility

Will Bitcoin fall more than 50% from its all time high by Jan 1, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

169670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

Which will be the lowest range Palantir stock price will reach in the next 2 years?

Feb 4, 2:47 PMFeb 4, 9:59 PM

98033

OptionProbability

$60-80-

$40-60-

$20-40-

Below $20

$80-100-

$100 or higher

30

30

21

15

3

1

Will Intel stock reach $100 by the end of 2026?

Jan 9, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.65%chance

147515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1542

650

Will Bitcoin go below $30,000 before reaching a new all time high?

Jan 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28%chance

117035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1604

624

What price will Bitcoin hit by March 2026? (add your prediction)

Feb 2, 2:00 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

103076

OptionProbability

$75,001 - $80,000

$80,001 - $85,000

$85,001 - $90,000

$95,001 - $100,000

$70,001 - $75,000

$90,001 - $95,000

$100,001 - $105,000

$105,001 - $110,000

$110,001 - $115,000

$115,001 - $120,000

$120,001 - $130,000

$70,000 or below

$130,001 - $150,000

$150,001 or above

Other

38

24

6

6

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?

Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM

8.96%chance

212084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

406

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

838

Will canadian dollars drop below $0.70 usd before June 2026

Oct 24, 2:46 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

50.06%chance

81076

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

999

Will Europe fall before Bitcoin?

Dec 12, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.2%chance

8669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

455

Michael's To-Read List

Mar 12, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9368

OptionProbability

Advanced Portfolio Management

[Undisclosed Book for ACX Book Review Contest]

Option Volatility & Pricing

Njal's Saga

The Bostonians

The History of the Peloponnesian War

Middlemarch

Winds of Winter, lmao

The Histories

Dune Books 2, 3 & 4

Children of Time

Romance of the Three Kingdoms

Catch-22

The Crying of Lot 49

The Storm Before the Storm

85

83

83

83

76

76

76

69

66

64

63

50

50

50

50

In May 2028 in Sweden, daily price and supply/demand volatility in electricity will be higher than May 2023

Jun 2, 7:40 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

63.58%chance

528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

173

Visualization of high-volatility days on Polyoptions by EoY 2026

Dec 13, 3:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

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