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Prediction markets for Volatility

Will Bitcoin go below $30,000 before reaching a new all time high?

Jan 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.81%chance

127505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1741

574

Nguyen Ma Stock

Apr 11, 9:42 AM

83550

OptionProbability

NO

YES

742

384

Will Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi still be alive by June 1st 2026?

Mar 20, 3:17 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

48.22%chance

232534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

965

Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?

Apr 21, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.92%chance

92252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2070

483

Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?

Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM

8.96%chance

212084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

406

Will canadian dollars drop below $0.70 usd before June 2026

Oct 24, 2:46 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

30.91%chance

131886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1495

669

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

838

Will Europe fall before Bitcoin?

Dec 12, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.2%chance

8669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

455

Will samarium oxide prices increase by more than 25% globally by Q2 2026?

Feb 21, 12:03 PMAug 20, 12:03 PM

50.17%chance

4558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

899

Michael's To-Read List

Mar 12, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9368

OptionProbability

Advanced Portfolio Management

[Undisclosed Book for ACX Book Review Contest]

Option Volatility & Pricing

Njal's Saga

The Bostonians

The History of the Peloponnesian War

Middlemarch

Winds of Winter, lmao

The Histories

Dune Books 2, 3 & 4

Children of Time

Romance of the Three Kingdoms

Catch-22

The Crying of Lot 49

The Storm Before the Storm

85

83

83

83

76

76

76

69

66

64

63

50

50

50

50

In May 2028 in Sweden, daily price and supply/demand volatility in electricity will be higher than May 2023

Jun 2, 7:40 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

63.58%chance

528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

173

Visualization of high-volatility days on Polyoptions by EoY 2026

Dec 13, 3:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

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