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Prediction markets for Vote to List

Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?

Jul 21, 11:47 PMNov 4, 7:59 AM

9354954

OptionProbability

Democrats Sweep

R Senate, D House

Republicans Sweep

D Senate, R House

Other

49

41

9

0

0

Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)

Jan 15, 2:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

8337444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1415

549

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Jan 22, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.75%chance

11226658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17360

3293

Will Lamine Yamal win The Fifa Best Young Player award at the World Cup?

Mar 25, 2:56 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

18.41%chance

164537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2105

475

What will be the most popular way to interact with a portable digital devices in 2030?

Jan 23, 1:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

492802

OptionProbability

Touch-screen smartphones

AR/VR glasses

Other technology that WAS already commercialized in 2024

Other technology that was NOT commercialized in 2024

Rabbit-style voice agents

Humane-style pins

Brain computer interfaces

69

22

3

3

1

1

1

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Will I consider the next UK General Election "a First Past the Post shitshow"?

Jan 7, 9:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.68%chance

131431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

638

201

Vote rigging scandal in UK, CA, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, DK, Sweden, Finland, or Ireland before 2027?

Dec 1, 9:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.12%chance

251206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1532

694

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

3989

Will "Reevaluating "AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 20, 5:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.52%chance

16

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

964

SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?

May 7, 2:57 PMSep 6, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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