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Prediction markets for Vote to List

Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?

Jul 21, 11:47 PMNov 4, 7:59 AM

18994073

OptionProbability

Democrats Sweep

R Senate, D House

Republicans Sweep

D Senate, R House

Other

65

27

7

1

0

Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)

Jan 15, 2:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62%chance

8742716

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1459

520

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Jan 22, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.66%chance

11529640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20144

2129

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

May 18, 11:08 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

249654

OptionProbability

J.D. Vance

Other

Marco Rubio

Tucker Carlson

Ron DeSantis

Donald Trump Jr.

47

25

21

2

2

2

What will be the most popular way to interact with a portable digital devices in 2030?

Jan 23, 1:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

492803

OptionProbability

Touch-screen smartphones

AR/VR glasses

Other technology that WAS already commercialized in 2024

Other technology that was NOT commercialized in 2024

Rabbit-style voice agents

Humane-style pins

Brain computer interfaces

69

22

4

3

1

1

1

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Will I consider the next UK General Election "a First Past the Post shitshow"?

Jan 7, 9:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.68%chance

131431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

638

201

Vote rigging scandal in UK, CA, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, DK, Sweden, Finland, or Ireland before 2027?

Dec 1, 9:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.54%chance

281296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1602

669

Darline Graham Vote Percent in South Carolina Senate election

Sep 22, 9:32 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

61114

OptionProbability

At least 46%

At least 48%

At least 50%

At least 52%

At least 54%

At least 56%

At least 58%

90

86

75

57

39

24

11

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.59%chance

6415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4357

3816

Will "Reevaluating "AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 20, 5:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.52%chance

16

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

964

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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