Vote to List News

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Jan 22, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.76%chance

10518956

OptionVotes

YES

15777

4360

In 2026, will Manifold think that Sam Altman abused Annie Altman?

Nov 18, 12:09 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15.41%chance

9411486

OptionVotes

YES

1463

858

Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?

Jul 21, 11:47 PMNov 4, 7:59 AM

333999

OptionProbability

R Senate, D House

Democrats Sweep

Republicans Sweep

D Senate, R House

Other

Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)

Jan 15, 2:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.3%chance

353725

OptionVotes

YES

1505

786

What will be the most popular way to interact with a portable digital devices in 2030?

Jan 23, 1:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

472445

OptionProbability

Touch-screen smartphones

AR/VR glasses

Other technology that WAS already commercialized in 2024

Other technology that was NOT commercialized in 2024

Rabbit-style voice agents

Humane-style pins

Brain computer interfaces

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

YES

1010

851

Vote rigging scandal in UK, CA, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, DK, Sweden, Finland, or Ireland before 2027?

Dec 1, 9:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.25%chance

21731

OptionVotes

YES

1057

941

Which will be voted the most important prediction ever listed on Manifold in 2030?

Apr 14, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6702

OptionProbability

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/what-will-i-believe-is-the-most-imp?r=S3JhbnR6

Other

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/who-are-you-aligned-with?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-proper-date-will-be-the-most?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-proposition-will-be-denied?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-will-be-voted-the-most-import?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-eliezer-charitably-reviewed-my-w?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/who-actually-shot-jfk?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-celebritiespublic-figures-wil?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-person-had-the-most-important?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/what-topicsissueevent-should-the-ge?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/what-is-the-most-important-question?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-a-machine-is-only-capable-of-ask?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-a-friendly-ai-takes-control-of-h?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-source-of-truth-will-be-unive?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/what-is-the-most-valuable-propositi?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/guessing-game-what-propositions-doe?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-krantz-goes-on-a-proper-date-wit-llS5nI9Etn?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-krantz-goes-on-a-proper-date-wit?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-krantz-hires-danny-sheehan-as-hi?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-aella-and-i-go-on-a-proper-date?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/who-will-be-time-magazines-person-o?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500?r=S3JhbnR6

Will "An Extremely Opinionated Annotated List of My..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 9, 1:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

39.51%chance

3310

OptionVotes

YES

1215

303

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

4007

3989

Will "If you're not sure how to sort a list or grid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 28, 6:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

1010

998

Will "A List of 45+ Mech Interp Project Ideas from ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 22, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Vote to List News

Prediction markets for Vote to List

Prediction markets for Vote to List

Prediction markets for Vote to List

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

In 2026, will Manifold think that Sam Altman abused Annie Altman?

Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?

Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)

What will be the most popular way to interact with a portable digital devices in 2030?

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Vote rigging scandal in UK, CA, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, DK, Sweden, Finland, or Ireland before 2027?

Which will be voted the most important prediction ever listed on Manifold in 2030?

Will "An Extremely Opinionated Annotated List of My..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Will "If you're not sure how to sort a list or grid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "A List of 45+ Mech Interp Project Ideas from ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

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