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Prediction markets for Vote to List

Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?

Jul 21, 11:47 PMNov 4, 7:59 AM

7034068

OptionProbability

R Senate, D House

Democrats Sweep

Republicans Sweep

D Senate, R House

Other

52

37

10

1

0

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Jan 22, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.75%chance

11126648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17360

3293

Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)

Jan 15, 2:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.99%chance

6726012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

924

What will be the most popular way to interact with a portable digital devices in 2030?

Jan 23, 1:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

482667

OptionProbability

Touch-screen smartphones

AR/VR glasses

Other technology that WAS already commercialized in 2024

Other technology that was NOT commercialized in 2024

Rabbit-style voice agents

Humane-style pins

Brain computer interfaces

72

17

4

3

1

1

1

Will "IABIED is on the NYT bestseller list" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 26, 11:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

4.69%chance

72104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2796

846

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Will I consider the next UK General Election "a First Past the Post shitshow"?

Jan 7, 9:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.45%chance

121425

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

809

🏀 WOJ BOMB 💣: Which of the top 5 NBA MVP candidates from last year will be first to play for a new team?

Feb 8, 3:05 PMJan 1, 2:53 PM

211310

OptionProbability

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Current: Milwaukee)

Joel Embiid (Current: Philadelphia)

Nikola Jokić (Current: Denver)

Jayson Tatum (Current: Boston))

All five retire before they play a game for a new team

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Current: OKC)

82

6

5

5

2

1

Vote rigging scandal in UK, CA, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, DK, Sweden, Finland, or Ireland before 2027?

Dec 1, 9:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.37%chance

24856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

859

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

3989

Will "If you're not sure how to sort a list or grid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 28, 6:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

998

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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