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Prediction markets for Vote to List

Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?

Jul 21, 11:47 PMNov 4, 7:59 AM

5723488

OptionProbability

R Senate, D House

Democrats Sweep

Republicans Sweep

D Senate, R House

Other

54

28

16

1

1

Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)

Jan 15, 2:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.19%chance

6522953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

960

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Jan 22, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.16%chance

10822745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16040

4153

In 2026, will Manifold think that Sam Altman abused Annie Altman?

Nov 18, 12:09 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.67%chance

9511547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

847

What will be the most popular way to interact with a portable digital devices in 2030?

Jan 23, 1:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

482667

OptionProbability

Touch-screen smartphones

AR/VR glasses

Other technology that WAS already commercialized in 2024

Other technology that was NOT commercialized in 2024

Rabbit-style voice agents

Humane-style pins

Brain computer interfaces

72

17

4

3

1

1

1

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Will "An Extremely Opinionated Annotated List of My..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 9, 1:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

51009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Vote rigging scandal in UK, CA, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, DK, Sweden, Finland, or Ireland before 2027?

Dec 1, 9:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.25%chance

21731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

941

Median absolute difference between SSBMRank 2025 and AlgoRank 2025 under 3.5?

Sep 5, 3:35 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

42.7%chance

3184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

863

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

3989

Average absolute difference between SSBMRank 2025 and AlgoRank 2025 under 5?

Sep 5, 3:37 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

50.25%chance

227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

995

Will "If you're not sure how to sort a list or grid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 28, 6:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

998

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