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Prediction markets for Walking Away

Will I regret leaving Manifold?

Apr 2, 8:04 PMApr 3, 6:59 AM

9.12%chance

13117050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2396

1008

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Sep 23, 2:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.57%chance

889441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

881

Will Portland have fully self-driving taxis by the end of 2025?

Dec 16, 12:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.85%chance

453123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3073

571

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2025?

Jun 9, 10:51 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

202897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1658

54

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2026?

Jun 9, 10:52 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

73.9%chance

221490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

534

Does ChatGPT still diagnose appendicitis through EOY 2025

Jan 1, 4:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.2%chance

22937

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

987

Is the "Game of Thrones" theory of what happened at OpenAI broadly accurate?

Nov 24, 12:08 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.43%chance

18857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

934

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2027?

Jun 9, 10:54 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

89.68%chance

12679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

945

Will my family continue to call me fat by 2035?

Jul 23, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

92.67%chance

6199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

340

130

Does Bing restrict medical queries in the US on October 1 2025?

Mar 8, 5:26 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

15.59%chance

6193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

44

Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030

Sep 19, 3:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18%chance

4141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

82

Does ChatGPT or future text LLMs from OpenAI still diagnose appendicitis, mid 2027

Jan 15, 8:01 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

83.51%chance

2125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225

44

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