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Prediction markets for WAN

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

78.44%chance

245740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1907

524

Will Kwon Young-Wan win a Nobel Prize?

Aug 1, 9:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.93%chance

314724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4172

717

I will resolve this however I want to

Jun 1, 7:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.84%chance

483121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1280

751

Aella gets engaged to a polyamorous partner who wants kids and has higher income/wealth?

Aug 31, 1:23 AMSep 2, 1:21 AM

22.12%chance

61078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1876

533

Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?

Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

36.99%chance

8525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

975

Will Claire Wang major in Course 6 at MIT?

Aug 15, 3:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.83%chance

12284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

960

Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Who will be the KMT Presidential Candidate?

Jan 14, 3:49 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

293

OptionProbability

Lu Shiow-yen

Cheng Li-wun

Chiang Wan-an

Other

Lo Chih-chiang

Han Kuo-yu

Hou Yu-ih

Terry Gou (Tai-ming)

Eric Chu (Li-luan)

33

20

15

10

8

6

3

3

3

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2033?

Mar 25, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

98

Wanneer gaat Timon zich bekeren?

Mar 6, 11:48 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

270

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Nooit

38

14

10

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

Will Claire Wang (@clairebookworm) meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 1%?

Sep 21, 8:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.72%chance

357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

46

Will someone accidentally call Sigil Wen "Kevin", as in, "Kevin Wang" or "Kevin Chen" or "Kevin Huang" by EOY2029?

Sep 19, 4:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will @adic_9, Henry (@arithmoquine), Chris Lakin, Claire Wang, and autism hexafluoride all CIRCLE together?

Jul 27, 5:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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