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Prediction markets for WAN

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

77.79%chance

255750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

534

Will Kwon Young-Wan win a Nobel Prize?

Aug 1, 9:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.93%chance

314724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4172

717

I will resolve this however I want to

Jun 1, 7:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62%chance

493170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1335

715

Aella gets engaged to a polyamorous partner who wants kids and has higher income/wealth?

Aug 31, 1:23 AMSep 2, 1:21 AM

28.6%chance

81210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1580

633

Will Claire Wang major in Course 6 at MIT?

Aug 15, 3:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.03%chance

12287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

968

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2037?

Mar 25, 4:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.05%chance

5189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

87

Will "Research directions Open Phil wants to fund i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 11, 12:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

1164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

85

Will Jose Luis Ricon, Yoyo Yuan, and Claire Wang visit Chongqing together by EOY2028?

Mar 16, 3:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.61%chance

285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Would a simulated distribution of Jose Luis Ricon/Claire Wang offspring predict at least 50% of their kids w/ IQ > 140

Sep 15, 10:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62%chance

323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

78

The first Chinese woman to walk on the Moon will be neither Liu Yang nor Wang Yaping

Oct 30, 12:48 PMNov 6, 3:59 PM

51.34%chance

322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

85

Will Jose Luis Ricon, @adic_9, Henry Bass, Geffen Avraham,and Claire Wang all play an escape room together by 2030?

Jul 29, 9:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.53%chance

112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

90

Will ken Mehr want kids in 5 years time?

Oct 14, 8:22 AMOct 14, 12:59 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

60

42

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