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Prediction markets for WAN

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

77.79%chance

255750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

534

Will Kwon Young-Wan win a Nobel Prize?

Aug 1, 9:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.93%chance

314724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4172

717

Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?

Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

7.37%chance

113845

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3961

408

I will resolve this however I want to

Jun 1, 7:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62%chance

493170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1335

715

Aella gets engaged to a polyamorous partner who wants kids and has higher income/wealth?

Aug 31, 1:23 AMSep 2, 1:21 AM

22.12%chance

61078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1876

533

In what year will All I Want For Christmas Is You by Mariah Carey lose the streak of reaching #1 song in December?

Mar 25, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9399

OptionProbability

Other

2031

2027

2030

2028

2026

2029

2025

29

15

13

10

9

9

9

8

Will Claire Wang major in Course 6 at MIT?

Aug 15, 3:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.03%chance

12287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

968

Will Jose Luis Ricon (JLR) invite Rona Wang to a birthday party by EOY2026?

Apr 29, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.09%chance

5150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

Will Claire Wang take 6.172 at MIT?

Aug 4, 6:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.5%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

Would a simulated distribution of Jose Luis Ricon/Claire Wang offspring predict at least 50% of their kids w/ IQ > 140

Sep 15, 10:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62%chance

323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

78

Will @adic_9, Henry (@arithmoquine), Chris Lakin, Claire Wang, and autism hexafluoride all CIRCLE together?

Jul 27, 5:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

SIGN HERE TO JOIN THE BREAD ARMY [ADD ANSWERS IF YOU WANT TO]

Jun 8, 9:13 AMDec 31, 9:26 AM

00

OptionProbability

IM SIGNING HERE 🫡

Im signing here 🫡

BREAD ARMY FOREVER 🫡

COUNT ME IN 🥖🫡

50

50

50

50

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