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Prediction markets for WAN

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

77.79%chance

255750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

534

Will Kwon Young-Wan win a Nobel Prize?

Aug 1, 9:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.93%chance

314724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4172

717

I will resolve this however I want to

Jun 1, 7:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62%chance

493170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1335

715

Aella gets engaged to a polyamorous partner who wants kids and has higher income/wealth?

Aug 31, 1:23 AMSep 2, 1:21 AM

28.6%chance

81210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1580

633

Will Rick Wang qualify for USNCO nationals 2027?

May 24, 7:09 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

11.03%chance

6319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will Claire Wang major in Course 6 at MIT?

Aug 15, 3:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.03%chance

12287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

968

Will "Research directions Open Phil wants to fund i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 11, 12:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

1164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

85

Will Claire Wang (@clairebookworm) meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 1%?

Sep 21, 8:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.72%chance

357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

46

Will Melinda Wang and Jose Luis ricon kiss?

Nov 23, 3:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.85%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

81

SIGN HERE TO JOIN THE BREAD ARMY [ADD ANSWERS IF YOU WANT TO]

Jun 8, 9:13 AMDec 31, 9:26 AM

152

OptionProbability

IM SIGNING HERE 🫡

Im signing here 🫡

BREAD ARMY FOREVER 🫡

COUNT ME IN 🥖🫡

30

30

30

30

Will Claire Wang get at least one class with a GPA of less than 3.5/5.0 at MIT?

Feb 10, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.18%chance

440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

103

Would a simulated distribution of Jose Luis Ricon/Claire Wang offspring predict at least 50% of their kids w/ IQ > 140

Sep 15, 10:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62%chance

323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

78

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