WAN News

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

77.79%chance

255750

OptionVotes

YES

1872

534

Will Kwon Young-Wan win a Nobel Prize?

Aug 1, 9:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.93%chance

314724

OptionVotes

YES

4172

717

I will resolve this however I want to

Jun 1, 7:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.44%chance

483131

OptionVotes

YES

1295

741

@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

Jan 13, 5:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

52033

OptionProbability

Will SpaceX's Starship–SuperHeavy lift off from the launch pad two or more times between 1 January 2024 and 1 July 2024 inclusive?

Will Manifold users reach the $10,000 monthly charity donation cap in any of the first six months of 2024? (Excepting the excluded period at the start of January)?

Will Starship IFT-3 launch within a week of receiving the launch license from the FAA?

To whom does Manifold need to extend its userbase in order to be self-sustaining (link in comments)

[Don't bet on this yet, criteria TBA] How many Manifold users will have a net worth of 1 million mana or more on 1 July 2024? (Rules below)

Will the Tesla Cybertruck be available in Australia by 2034?

[At least ten answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

[At least fifty answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

100

Aella gets engaged to a polyamorous partner who wants kids and has higher income/wealth?

Aug 31, 1:23 AMSep 2, 1:21 AM

22.12%chance

61078

OptionVotes

YES

1876

533

Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?

Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

36.99%chance

8525

OptionVotes

YES

1283

975

Will Claire Wang major in Course 6 at MIT?

Aug 15, 3:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.03%chance

12287

OptionVotes

YES

992

968

Will Jose Luis Ricon enter into a relationship with Claire Wang by 2027?

Sep 11, 12:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.25%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

180

Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Who will be the KMT Presidential Candidate?

Jan 14, 3:49 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

293

OptionProbability

Lu Shiow-yen

Cheng Li-wun

Chiang Wan-an

Other

Lo Chih-chiang

Han Kuo-yu

Hou Yu-ih

Terry Gou (Tai-ming)

Eric Chu (Li-luan)

Will I be verbally speaking with a free AI in Ukrainian that can speak as slowly as I want and repeat itself exactly?

Apr 22, 6:38 PMJan 20, 7:37 PM

59.42%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

121

Did anyone from the OpenAI alignment team call for the board resignation without wanting it?

Nov 20, 3:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61.77%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will @adic_9, Henry Bass, Evan Lin, Chris Lakin, Claire Wang, and autism hexafluoride all live in a CABIN together?

Jul 27, 5:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

WAN News

Prediction markets for WAN

Prediction markets for WAN

Prediction markets for WAN

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Will Kwon Young-Wan win a Nobel Prize?

I will resolve this however I want to

@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

Aella gets engaged to a polyamorous partner who wants kids and has higher income/wealth?

Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?

Will Claire Wang major in Course 6 at MIT?

Will Jose Luis Ricon enter into a relationship with Claire Wang by 2027?

Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Who will be the KMT Presidential Candidate?

Will I be verbally speaking with a free AI in Ukrainian that can speak as slowly as I want and repeat itself exactly?

Did anyone from the OpenAI alignment team call for the board resignation without wanting it?

Will @adic_9, Henry Bass, Evan Lin, Chris Lakin, Claire Wang, and autism hexafluoride all live in a CABIN together?

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