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Prediction markets for Wanli

Will Kwon Young-Wan win a Nobel Prize?

Aug 1, 9:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.9%chance

304723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4205

716

I will resolve this however I want to

Jun 1, 7:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.84%chance

483121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1280

751

esun wan pi toki Inli ala li jo e jan esun pi mute seme lon tenpo sike 2025?

May 11, 4:33 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

112287

Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?

Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

36.99%chance

8525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

975

Intermarche-Wanty 2025 Predictions/Hot Takes [LRCP Previews]

Dec 18, 3:38 AMNov 2, 3:59 AM

4493

OptionProbability

17 or more victories (.1 or higher)

Gerben Thijssen 5 or more victories (.1 or higher)

4 or more WorldTour victories

Biniam Girmay wins Omloop het Nieuwsblad

Biniam Girmay wins Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne

Kamile Bonneu wins a Giro d'Italia stage

22

22

16

0

0

0

Will Claire Wang major in Course 6 at MIT?

Aug 15, 3:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.83%chance

12284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

960

Will either DLL break their WAN Show Streak before 2025?

Aug 26, 9:30 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

45.68%chance

7160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

76

Will "LLM Applications I Want To See" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 21, 12:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

2151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Who will be the KMT Presidential Candidate?

Jan 14, 3:49 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

272

OptionProbability

Lu Shiow-yen

Chiang Wan-an

Han Kuo-yu

Other

Hou Yu-ih

Terry Gou (Tai-ming)

Eric Chu (Li-luan)

53

17

9

9

4

4

4

If Nobel prize for LK-99 authors, who will be the third person to win the prize?

Jul 28, 3:18 AMFeb 1, 6:59 AM

470

OptionProbability

Young-Wan Kwon

Hyun-Tak Kim

No other recipient

Sungyeon Im

Multiple people

44

20

20

8

8

Will Melinda Wang and Jose Luis ricon kiss?

Nov 23, 3:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.85%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

81

Will Claire Wang (@clairebookworm) outlive adic_9?

Aug 9, 4:59 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

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