Wanted News

I will resolve this however I want to

Jun 1, 7:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.84%chance

483121

OptionVotes

YES

1280

751

@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

Jan 13, 5:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

52033

OptionProbability

Will SpaceX's Starship–SuperHeavy lift off from the launch pad two or more times between 1 January 2024 and 1 July 2024 inclusive?

Will Manifold users reach the $10,000 monthly charity donation cap in any of the first six months of 2024? (Excepting the excluded period at the start of January)?

Will Starship IFT-3 launch within a week of receiving the launch license from the FAA?

To whom does Manifold need to extend its userbase in order to be self-sustaining (link in comments)

[Don't bet on this yet, criteria TBA] How many Manifold users will have a net worth of 1 million mana or more on 1 July 2024? (Rules below)

Will the Tesla Cybertruck be available in Australia by 2034?

[At least ten answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

[At least fifty answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

100

FBI most wanted has someone listed for a crime committed in space through 2034

Sep 19, 12:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.58%chance

9586

OptionVotes

YES

723

132

In what year will All I Want For Christmas Is You by Mariah Carey lose the streak of reaching #1 song in December?

Mar 25, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9399

OptionProbability

Other

2031

2027

2030

2028

2026

2029

2025

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2037?

Mar 25, 4:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.05%chance

5189

OptionVotes

YES

250

Will "LLM Applications I Want To See" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 21, 12:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

2151

OptionVotes

YES

1150

978

Will 3D printing software let people auto-print/create a RealDoll of anyone they want by 2028?

Mar 20, 12:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.9%chance

3103

OptionVotes

YES

176

Will YouTube autoblur the faces of people in videos where they dont want their faces on the internet by EOY 2025?

Nov 22, 9:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.41%chance

675

OptionVotes

YES

185

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2033?

Mar 25, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

210

Did anyone from the OpenAI alignment team call for the board resignation without wanting it?

Nov 20, 3:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61.77%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 8, 11:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.98%chance

213

OptionVotes

YES

101

Does Qiaochu Yuan believe the world wants him to be happy?

Nov 10, 8:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.99%chance

OptionVotes

YES

Wanted News

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I will resolve this however I want to

@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

FBI most wanted has someone listed for a crime committed in space through 2034

In what year will All I Want For Christmas Is You by Mariah Carey lose the streak of reaching #1 song in December?

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2037?

Will "LLM Applications I Want To See" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will 3D printing software let people auto-print/create a RealDoll of anyone they want by 2028?

Will YouTube autoblur the faces of people in videos where they dont want their faces on the internet by EOY 2025?

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2033?

Did anyone from the OpenAI alignment team call for the board resignation without wanting it?

Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Does Qiaochu Yuan believe the world wants him to be happy?

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