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Prediction markets for war

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 10, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.73%chance

659285853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19517

11950

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

May 3, 10:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

112190132

OptionProbability

Other

Jul - Dec 2027

Jan - Jun 2027

Jul - Dec 2026

Jan - Jun 2024

Jul - Dec 2024

Jan - Jun 2025

Jul - Dec 2025

Jan - Jun 2026

87

5

4

3

0

0

0

0

0

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Apr 8, 3:00 AMMay 15, 3:59 AM

35.1%chance

213142069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

747

At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?

Nov 12, 11:10 AMJun 29, 12:59 AM

15.99%chance

310102324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5185

776

Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?

Aug 26, 3:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

5.34%chance

19283131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2847

1138

Will the war in Ukraine end before 2027?

Dec 30, 6:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.84%chance

15542916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5861

386

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 23, 5:59 AM

70%chance

8834622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1603

256

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Jul 5, 12:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.69%chance

7327126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2375

1572

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.37%chance

11815348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4955

621

[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.42%chance

185897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9928

3914

Which Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?

Jan 21, 6:12 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

103566

OptionProbability

Other

Bobby Pulido (D- TX15)

Susan Collins (R|ME-SEN)

Adam Hamilton (D- KS Sen)

Henry Cuellar (D|TX-26)

Jack Reed (D|CT-SEN)

Brian Fitzpatrick (R|PA-01)

Mary Peltola (D|AK-SEN)

Dusty Johnson (R|SD-AL)

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D|MI-08)

Grace Meng (D|NY-6)

45

35

6

6

4

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will the U.S. or Israel be at war with Iran at any point during the year in which global peak oil is reached?

May 10, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes, Israel

Yes, Both U.S. and Israel

No, and the year is before 2030

Peak oil occurs 2030 or later

25

25

25

25

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