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Prediction markets for war

Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?

Jun 22, 11:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.22%chance

531364441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2894

445

Will the US be at war with Iran before the end of 2025

Dec 7, 6:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.7%chance

392242657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4641

462

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 10, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.21%chance

479178651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5704

893

At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?

Nov 12, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.4%chance

28699016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5680

691

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

May 3, 10:57 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

6678919

OptionProbability

Other

Jul - Dec 2025

Jul - Dec 2026

Jan - Jun 2026

Jan - Jun 2025

Jan - Jun 2024

Jul - Dec 2024

39

21

21

18

1

0

0

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30973505

OptionProbability

1500-2500

2500-3500

5000+

1000-1500

3500-5000

0-500

500-1000

83

9

5

1

1

0

0

Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?

Nov 11, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.49%chance

15022811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1449

1124

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Jul 5, 12:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.11%chance

6518922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1634

680

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92.38%chance

11314826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6748

407

Nuclear War 2025: How many of the linked markets resolve Yes?

Aug 12, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

87242

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

4-5

6-8

9-12

13-17

82

8

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

Jan 22, 3:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.56%chance

142752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10667

9057

Will there be a nuclear war before 2100?

Dec 19, 9:24 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.68%chance

11655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

105

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