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Prediction markets for war

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 10, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.88%chance

545220417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3320

1445

How many weeks will the US–Iran war last?

Mar 7, 9:10 AMApr 8, 9:59 PM

337167586

OptionProbability

Above 1 week

Above 2 weeks (Mar 14)

Above 3 weeks (Mar 21)

Above 4 weeks (Mar 28)

Above 6 weeks (Apr 11)

Above 9 weeks (May 2)

Above 13 weeks (May 30)

Above 20 weeks (Jul 18)

Above 35 weeks (Oct 31)

Above 55 weeks (Mar 20, 2027)

Above 80 weeks (Sep 11, 2027)

Above 110 weeks (Apr 8, 2028)

100

100

100

97

91

73

54

43

31

22

19

15

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

May 3, 10:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

99138312

OptionProbability

Other

Jan - Jun 2026

Jul - Dec 2026

Jul - Dec 2025

Jan - Jun 2025

Jan - Jun 2024

Jul - Dec 2024

60

23

14

2

1

0

0

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Apr 8, 3:00 AMMay 15, 3:59 AM

45.22%chance

183120603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

914

At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?

Nov 12, 11:10 AMJun 1, 12:59 AM

13.98%chance

292100035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5559

710

Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - Israeli Side

Oct 8, 6:14 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

31374211

OptionProbability

1500-2500

2500-3500

1000-1500

5000+

3500-5000

0-500

500-1000

84

11

2

2

1

0

0

Will the war in Ukraine end before 2027?

Dec 30, 6:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.17%chance

13232020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3882

708

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 1, 5:59 AM

56.76%chance

6828644

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1371

389

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Jul 5, 12:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.13%chance

7126323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2991

1557

Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?

Jun 9, 9:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

20.55%chance

10319364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1977

512

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.75%chance

11415027

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6505

428

[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.5%chance

8201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5180

4868

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