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Prediction markets for war

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 10, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.8%chance

598257083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12279

11913

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

May 3, 10:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

103159542

OptionProbability

Other

Jan - Jun 2027

Jul - Dec 2026

Jan - Jun 2026

Jan - Jun 2025

Jul - Dec 2025

Jan - Jun 2024

Jul - Dec 2024

51

28

17

2

1

1

0

0

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Apr 8, 3:00 AMMay 15, 3:59 AM

39%chance

197129734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

809

Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?

Aug 26, 3:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

5.42%chance

19282845

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2808

1140

In how many months from the the 1 of January 2025 will the Russo-Ukraine war end.

Feb 27, 9:30 PMFeb 1, 10:59 PM

4479212

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 3

Above 6

Above 9

Above 12

Above 15

Above 18

Above 24

100

100

100

100

100

100

96

75

Will the war in Ukraine end before 2027?

Dec 30, 6:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.78%chance

14336903

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4124

648

Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war

Mar 31, 11:32 AMJun 23, 5:59 AM

70%chance

8733533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1603

256

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Jul 5, 12:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.13%chance

7126323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2991

1557

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.28%chance

11515042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6343

443

Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?

Jan 29, 10:42 AMDec 29, 12:59 AM

26%chance

5610896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1459

774

[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.94%chance

141535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5745

4853

Will the U.S. or Israel be at war with Iran at any point during the year in which global peak oil is reached?

May 10, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes, Israel

Yes, Both U.S. and Israel

No, and the year is before 2030

Peak oil occurs 2030 or later

25

25

25

25

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