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Prediction markets for War Powers Resolution

Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?

May 20, 5:59 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

10.53%chance

10617534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2914

343

Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2025?

Aug 12, 9:34 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

12%chance

153445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?

Aug 6, 4:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.5%chance

71555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1856

539

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

17792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

970

Will a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035?

Dec 2, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.29%chance

12323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?

Nov 15, 1:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.7%chance

10289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

556

308

War-Powers Notice on Iran Before 31 Dec 2025? (“Declaration of War”)

Jun 18, 2:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

22.15%chance

2275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Who will win the clash of civilizations.

Mar 10, 11:11 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM

4130

OptionProbability

Anglos🇺🇸

None

China🇨🇳

Other

Subcontinentals🇮🇳

Orthodoxy🇷🇺

27

26

19

14

9

5

Will the top public OpenAI assistant rate China as more military powerful than the US in 2020?

May 27, 5:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.97%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

88

Federal court rules on War Powers Act constitutionality by July 2026?

Jun 24, 8:40 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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