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Prediction markets for WARN Act

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.47%chance

181532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

615

When will Betelgeuse go supernova ?

May 21, 4:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

78.33%chance

10848

OptionProbability

NO

YES

718

578

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.64%chance

10641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Mar 23, 6:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.01%chance

15481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

957

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

Mar 23, 6:31 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

65.91%chance

16384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

925

In what year will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths?

Dec 25, 9:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8338

OptionProbability

2075-2099

Never

2045-2049

2050-2074

2030-2034

2040-2044

2035-2039

2025-2029

31

22

14

11

7

7

5

3

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Jan 18, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13%chance

9288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Will the winner of the 2024 election continuously be the acting president from January 20, 2025 until January 20, 2029?

Mar 26, 4:43 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

60.27%chance

8224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

128

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2050?

Dec 23, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.77%chance

257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2100?

Dec 24, 6:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.29%chance

212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2075?

Jan 6, 10:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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