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Prediction markets for WARN Act

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.7%chance

262978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1666

746

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.47%chance

181532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

615

When will Betelgeuse go supernova ?

May 21, 4:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

78.33%chance

10848

OptionProbability

NO

YES

718

578

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.64%chance

10641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Mar 23, 6:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.01%chance

15481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

957

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

Mar 23, 6:31 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

65.91%chance

16384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

925

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2035?

Dec 23, 2:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

4347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

3200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2100?

Dec 24, 6:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.29%chance

212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2075?

Jan 6, 10:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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