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Prediction markets for WARN Act

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.76%chance

273028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1716

730

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

191582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

When will Betelgeuse go supernova ?

May 21, 4:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

78.33%chance

10848

OptionProbability

NO

YES

718

578

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.64%chance

10641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2030?

Dec 23, 2:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.98%chance

4549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

491

20

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2035?

Dec 23, 2:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

4347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?

Mar 16, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

15340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

In what year will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths?

Dec 25, 9:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8338

OptionProbability

2075-2099

Never

2045-2049

2050-2074

2030-2034

2040-2044

2035-2039

2025-2029

31

22

14

11

7

7

5

3

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

3200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2050?

Dec 23, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.77%chance

257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

What will happen to the Marineland Beluga whales?

Oct 14, 1:41 PMOct 15, 1:29 PM

215

OptionProbability

Euthanized

Moved to a sanctuary

Introduced to the wild

Sold/given to a park

38

26

18

18

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2100?

Dec 24, 6:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.29%chance

212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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