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Prediction markets for WARN Act

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.4%chance

273083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1630

758

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

191582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Jan 18, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

171316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

569

18

When will Betelgeuse go supernova ?

May 21, 4:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

78.33%chance

10848

OptionProbability

NO

YES

718

578

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.64%chance

10641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?

Mar 16, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.01%chance

17380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

92

In what year will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths?

Dec 25, 9:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13380

OptionProbability

2075-2099

Never

2045-2049

2025-2029

2050-2074

2030-2034

2040-2044

2035-2039

30

19

13

10

10

8

6

4

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2045?

Dec 23, 2:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.25%chance

7235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

44

Will the winner of the 2024 election continuously be the acting president from January 20, 2025 until January 20, 2029?

Mar 26, 4:43 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

60.27%chance

8224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

128

Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2050?

Dec 23, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.61%chance

5156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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