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Prediction markets for watch

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.75%chance

9327406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

1109

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.81%chance

335935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4447

225

Where will cycling fans in the USA be able to watch the 2026 Tour of Flanders?

Apr 2, 6:36 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

41281

OptionProbability

FloBikes

Max

Peacock

Other

ESPN

Not Available

Discovery+

YouTube

Apple TV+

Amazon Prime

GCN+ (Returns!)

86

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will an Apple Watch have the ability to measure CO2 in the air by 2028?

Sep 1, 5:29 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

18.8%chance

16923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

773

When will I be able to watch a trailer for the next Half-Life game?

Nov 17, 4:02 PMDec 31, 3:45 PM

14648

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Sept 2026

Before May 2026

Before March 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before Dec 2025

63

57

47

45

43

3

0

Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.49%chance

4460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

940

Will the Apple Watch be able to properly monitor blood pressure by 2030?

May 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

65.19%chance

16387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

954

Will Apple announce non-invasive blood-glucose monitoring for Apple Watch by 31 Dec 2026 (23:59 UTC)?

Feb 16, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:58 PM

11.65%chance

3270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

36

How many millions of people will watch the next moon landing?

Apr 12, 4:20 AMApr 2, 5:59 AM

9181

OptionProbability

700-800

300-400

400-500

500-600

600-700

800-900

1100-1200

900-1000

1000-1100

0-100

100-200

200-300

1200-1300

1300-1400

1400-1500

1500-1600

1600-1700

1700-1800

1800-1900

1900-2000

2000-2100

21

15

15

15

9

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will I be able to watch The Day The Clown Cried before Beyond the Spiderverse?

Aug 15, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.72%chance

5160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

Will "What Indicators Should We Watch to Disambigua..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 8, 6:05 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

37.45%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

33

Will the Apple Watch Series 8 receive over 5 major OS updates in its lifetime? (Beyond WatchOS 13)

Oct 20, 4:25 AMMay 31, 1:59 PM

58%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

79

63

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