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Prediction markets for watch

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.75%chance

9327406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

1109

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.26%chance

346935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5447

184

When will I be able to watch a trailer for the next Half-Life game?

Nov 17, 4:02 PMDec 31, 3:45 PM

141203

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Sept 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before March 2026

Before May 2026

Before Dec 2025

63

57

47

1

1

1

0

Will an Apple Watch have the ability to measure CO2 in the air by 2028?

Sep 1, 5:29 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

18.8%chance

16923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

773

When Will I First Watch Synthetic Media In a Real Movie Theater?

Aug 21, 1:40 AMJan 2, 2:36 AM

5777

OptionProbability

Later than 2027

July-December 2027

January-June 2026

July-December 2026

January-June 2027

July-December 2025

66

8

7

7

7

4

Will Apple announce non-invasive blood-glucose monitoring for Apple Watch by 31 Dec 2026 (23:59 UTC)?

Feb 16, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:58 PM

2%chance

5695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

Will I @henrithunberg like the following movies if I watch them?

Jan 11, 10:51 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13473

OptionProbability

Oppenheimer

Banshees of Insherin

Tár

Drive My Car

The Guilty (2018)

Blue Valentine (2010)

Conclave

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Mommy (2014)

The 400 Blows (1959)

The Lunchbox (2013)

Saraband (2003)

Shoplifters (2018)

Winter Sleep (2014)

Sharknado

Barbie

100

100

100

62

59

56

52

50

46

46

46

44

43

43

36

0

Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.49%chance

4460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

940

Will the Apple Watch be able to properly monitor blood pressure by 2030?

May 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

65.19%chance

16387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

954

I can watch MLB games in multi-camera

Jul 8, 7:19 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

14.6%chance

4262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

47

Will a Japanese emperor watch an MLB game again by end 2041

Sep 30, 8:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.3%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

64

Will the Apple Watch Series 8 receive over 5 major OS updates in its lifetime? (Beyond WatchOS 13)

Oct 20, 4:25 AMMay 31, 1:59 PM

58%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

79

63

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