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Prediction markets for watch

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.92%chance

9025906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1895

1106

By the end of 2025, there will be an Apple Watch that has a glucose sensor

Feb 13, 5:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.26%chance

178759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4739

211

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.65%chance

295214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3746

267

Will VLXXHub become Vietnam's #1 streaming service by total watch hours by December 31st, 2025?

Dec 10, 1:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.55%chance

33125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4125

242

Will this market "Are aliens watching Earth?" be resolved in a way I consider meaningful and supported?

Feb 15, 2:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.73%chance

16830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

971

Where will cycling fans in the USA be able to watch the 2026 Tour of Flanders?

Apr 2, 6:36 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

3731

OptionProbability

FloBikes

Max

Peacock

Other

ESPN

Not Available

Discovery+

YouTube

Apple TV+

Amazon Prime

GCN+ (Returns!)

67

13

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

When will I be able to watch a trailer for the next Half-Life game?

Nov 17, 4:02 PMDec 31, 3:45 PM

12493

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before March 2026

Before May 2026

Before Sept 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before Dec 2025

88

82

70

66

66

34

0

Will I @henrithunberg like the following movies if I watch them?

Jan 11, 10:51 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13473

OptionProbability

Oppenheimer

Tár

Banshees of Insherin

Drive My Car

The Guilty (2018)

Blue Valentine (2010)

Conclave

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Mommy (2014)

The 400 Blows (1959)

The Lunchbox (2013)

Saraband (2003)

Shoplifters (2018)

Winter Sleep (2014)

Sharknado

Barbie

100

63

62

62

59

56

52

50

46

46

46

44

43

43

36

0

Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.49%chance

4460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

940

Will an Apple Watch have the ability to measure CO2 in the air by 2028?

Sep 1, 5:29 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

28.38%chance

15423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

924

Will the Apple Watch be able to properly monitor blood pressure by 2030?

May 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

65.19%chance

16387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

954

In "A Song of Ice and Fire", who will be the 1000th Lord Commander of the Night's Watch?

Mar 9, 9:42 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5138

OptionProbability

There won't be one / the Watch will cease to exist

Other

Jaime Lannister

Jon Snow

Eddison Tollett (Dolorous Edd)

Jorah Mormont

71

14

5

4

3

3

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