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Prediction markets for watch

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.75%chance

9327406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

1109

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.81%chance

335935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4447

225

Will an Apple Watch have the ability to measure CO2 in the air by 2028?

Sep 1, 5:29 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

18.8%chance

16923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

773

How many movies will BMM watch in 2026?

Jan 6, 12:24 AMJan 6, 7:59 AM

5840

OptionProbability

45 - 49

40 - 44

Below 35

35 - 39

50 - 52

87

12

0

0

0

Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.49%chance

4460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

940

Will the Apple Watch be able to properly monitor blood pressure by 2030?

May 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

65.19%chance

16387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

954

How many Seagal, Schwarzenegger, Stallone, Diesel, Van Damme, or Breen movies will we watch in 2026?

Jan 6, 12:54 AMJan 6, 7:59 AM

6310

OptionProbability

3 - 6

0 - 2

6 - 9

10+

70

27

2

2

How many millions of people will watch the next moon landing?

Apr 12, 4:20 AMApr 2, 5:59 AM

9181

OptionProbability

700-800

300-400

400-500

500-600

600-700

800-900

1100-1200

900-1000

1000-1100

0-100

100-200

200-300

1200-1300

1300-1400

1400-1500

1500-1600

1600-1700

1700-1800

1800-1900

1900-2000

2000-2100

21

15

15

15

9

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will I be able to watch The Day The Clown Cried before Beyond the Spiderverse?

Aug 15, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.72%chance

5160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

How many millions of people will watch the first Mars Landing?

Apr 12, 6:37 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

4160

OptionProbability

1500-1600

800-900

900-1000

400-500

500-600

600-700

700-800

1000-1100

1100-1200

1200-1300

1300-1400

1400-1500

77

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will I get to have an Apple Watch by the end of the school year

Dec 20, 9:31 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

81.08%chance

226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

99

Will Barton Rhodes or Alex Zhu watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on psychedelics by EOY2045

Oct 3, 8:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43.06%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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