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Prediction markets for WatchDog

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

51.14%chance

9012803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

978

Will a global AI watchdog be set up in London, modelled on the International Atomic Energy Agency, by Jan 1 2026?

Jun 3, 1:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.62%chance

193139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3410

451

Will the U.S. slide into the tenets of fascism under Trump’s second term by the end of 2025?

Mar 14, 8:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

482809

OptionProbability

Authoritarian Leadership

Forcible Suppression of Opposition

Extreme Nationalism and/or Race-Based Policies

Militarism and Political Violence

Regimentation of Society and Economy

Rejection of Pluralism and Democracy

89

82

81

80

58

23

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

What animal will we be to AI by 2045?

May 2, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13286

OptionProbability

Other

Cat

Petdog

Monkey

Chickens

Bugs

Watchdog

Labrats

Zoo animals

22

20

12

10

8

8

7

7

6

Has/will Elon Musk played Watchdogs 2?

Sep 22, 5:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.69%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

91

Will generative.ink be used to guide the plotline of a future video game like Watchdogs or Deus Ex 5?

Sep 22, 5:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.42%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

72

Will Anhphu Nguyen or BasedBeffJezos turn into a boss in a Watchdogs/Deus Ex game by EOY2035?

Nov 17, 2:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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