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Prediction markets for Wave

Where will the next generation EU gravitational wave telescope (Einstein telescope) be built?

Sep 21, 4:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1048434

OptionProbability

it will not be decided by the end of 2027

in Sardinia, Italy

near Maastricht, the Netherlands

Other

two telescopes will be built in both locations

44

22

14

11

8

Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?

Aug 29, 3:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.71%chance

516673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

918

Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026

Jun 1, 8:52 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

21%chance

224019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1940

516

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.27%chance

181608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1070

third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO?

May 23, 4:58 PMJul 1, 4:55 PM

30%chance

6673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1304

838

Gravitational Wave Echoes Detection in 2026

Mar 28, 2:06 PMDec 31, 3:03 PM

2.7%chance

10503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

97

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38.27%chance

18455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

940

Will "Third-wave AI safety needs sociopolitical thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 8, 11:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.71%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

958

Will GiveWell fund an intervention to avoid deaths from heat waves before 2028?

Jul 4, 10:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.45%chance

5220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

824

Will the paper be reproduced by 2028?: Transduction of DNA information through water and electromagnetic waves

Mar 23, 7:58 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

15.37%chance

5197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

99

Will drinking heavy water/deuterium significantly affect relative ratio of fast to slow brain waves (and 1/f falloff)?

Jan 25, 11:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

Will the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration publish evidence of "gravitational wave echoes" by EOY 2030

Mar 12, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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