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Prediction markets for Wave

Where will the next generation EU gravitational wave telescope (Einstein telescope) be built?

Sep 21, 4:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1018283

OptionProbability

it will not be decided by the end of 2027

in Sardinia, Italy

near Maastricht, the Netherlands

Other

two telescopes will be built in both locations

42

23

15

11

9

Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?

Aug 29, 3:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42%chance

516643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

888

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.27%chance

181608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1070

Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?

Jan 4, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.19%chance

281531

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

40

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38.27%chance

18455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

940

Will "Third-wave AI safety needs sociopolitical thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 8, 11:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.71%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

958

Will gravitational waves be used as a viable means of communication by 2100?

Jun 12, 4:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.66%chance

7274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

70

Will GiveWell fund an intervention to avoid deaths from heat waves before 2028?

Jul 4, 10:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.45%chance

5220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

824

Will NASA and the ESA still be collaboratively pursuing the LISA gravitational wave mission in 2028?

Jan 10, 5:39 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

87.24%chance

5154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

268

84

Will a gravitational wave signal be observed from a Thorne-Żytkow object by 2040?

Jun 4, 2:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.95%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

66

Will drinking heavy water/deuterium significantly affect relative ratio of fast to slow brain waves (and 1/f falloff)?

Jan 25, 11:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

Will the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration publish evidence of "gravitational wave echoes" by EOY 2030

Mar 12, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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