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Prediction markets for Waves

Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026

Jun 1, 8:52 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

387271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2065

484

Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?

Aug 29, 3:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.71%chance

516673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

918

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.27%chance

181608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1070

Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time?

Sep 3, 1:24 AMSep 3, 1:20 AM

16.6%chance

51563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2242

446

Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?

Jan 4, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.13%chance

291546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

38

third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO?

May 23, 4:58 PMJul 1, 4:55 PM

30%chance

6673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1304

838

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38.27%chance

18455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

940

Will "Third-wave AI safety needs sociopolitical thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 8, 11:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.71%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

958

Will gravitational waves be used as a viable means of communication by 2100?

Jun 12, 4:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.66%chance

7274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

70

Will GiveWell fund an intervention to avoid deaths from heat waves before 2028?

Jul 4, 10:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.45%chance

5220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

824

Wave height of 10.0 ft or higher will be recorded off the San Mateo Coast (Pacifica/Half Moon Bay) by November 15, 2026.

Aug 13, 3:35 AMNov 14, 11:59 PM

68%chance

666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

69

Will a gravitational wave signal be observed from a Thorne-Żytkow object by 2040?

Jun 4, 2:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.95%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

66

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