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Prediction markets for Waves

Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?

Aug 29, 3:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.18%chance

466435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

945

Where will the next generation EU gravitational wave telescope (Einstein telescope) be built?

Sep 21, 4:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

975684

OptionProbability

it will not be decided by the end of 2027

in Sardinia, Italy

near Maastricht, the Netherlands

Other

two telescopes will be built in both locations

29

27

24

15

4

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

Jul 26, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15%chance

242268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2018

687

Massive wave of AI cyberattacks by EOY 2026?

Jul 21, 8:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.68%chance

191831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1167

857

Will a Pulsar Timing Array experiment detect gravitational waves from a resolvable point source before the year 2030?

Sep 5, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.23%chance

151487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

1069

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38%chance

18447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

935

Will gravitational waves be used as a viable means of communication by 2100?

Jun 12, 4:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.66%chance

7274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

70

Will GiveWell fund an intervention to avoid deaths from heat waves before 2028?

Jul 4, 10:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.45%chance

5220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

824

Will the paper be reproduced by 2028?: Transduction of DNA information through water and electromagnetic waves

Mar 23, 7:58 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

15.37%chance

5197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

99

Will NASA and the ESA still be collaboratively pursuing the LISA gravitational wave mission in 2028?

Jan 10, 5:39 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

87.73%chance

5146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

276

83

Will "Response to nostalgebraist: proudly waving my..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 20, 3:35 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will a gravitational wave signal be observed from a Thorne-Żytkow object by 2040?

Jun 4, 2:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.95%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

66

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