Way News

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

Jan 9, 8:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.07%chance

77308954

OptionVotes

YES

4949

202

Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029?

Feb 13, 9:17 PMFeb 14, 12:00 AM

6646191

OptionProbability

Median wage for “computer and mathematical occupations,” as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is not more than 60% lower in real terms than in February 2026

The Gini coefficient is less than 0.60

The largest 5 companies don’t account for more than 65% of the total S&P 500 market cap

The U.S. unemployment rate is equal to or lower than 18%

CPI inflation averaged over 3 years is between -2% and +18% annually

Median household income has not fallen by more than 40% relative to mean household income

Labor force participation rate, ages 25-54, is equal to or greater than 68%

The Fortune 500 median profit margin is between 2% and 35%

The S&P 500 is within -60% to +225% of the February 2026 level

“Professional and Business Services” employment, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 35% from February 2026

The college wage premium (median earnings of bachelor's degree holders vs high school only) has not fallen below 30%

The top 0.1% wealth share is less than 30%

U.S. GDP is within -30% to +35% of February 2026 levels (inflation-adjusted)

Combined employment in software developers, accountants, lawyers, consultants, and writers, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 45%

The top 1%’s income share is less than 35%

Nonfarm labor productivity growth has not exceeded 8% in any individual year or 20% for the three-year period

No single BLS occupational category will have lost 50% or more of jobs between now and February 14th 2029

[WAY TOO EARLY] Best Picture winner? (2027 Oscars)

Mar 11, 3:19 AMMar 14, 11:59 PM

5136049

OptionProbability

The Odyssey

Other

Dune: Part Three

Wild Horse Nine

Digger

Fjord

Project Hail Mary

Disclosure Day

Jack of Spades

Social Reckoning

Her Private Hell

Saturn Return

The Christophers

Josephine

Werwulf

Paper Tiger

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew

Toy Story 5

Avengers: Doomsday

Michael

The Devil Wears Prada 2

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?

Aug 4, 4:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.95%chance

9218726

OptionVotes

YES

1000

912

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2030? 🧠🕵️

Jul 10, 12:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.91%chance

10111439

OptionVotes

YES

1773

1294

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.48%chance

674020

OptionVotes

YES

1291

509

Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?

Oct 16, 9:55 PMOct 17, 6:59 AM

73%chance

453794

OptionVotes

YES

1094

798

Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040

Sep 29, 5:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.32%chance

352627

OptionVotes

YES

1049

775

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

1201

926

Would keyboards still be the primary way of text inputs to a computer for a majority of kids in 2030?

Nov 21, 11:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

81.28%chance

381444

OptionVotes

YES

1180

940

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

1123

765

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.49%chance

14583

OptionVotes

YES

1340

435

Way News

Prediction markets for Way

Prediction markets for Way

Prediction markets for Way

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029?

[WAY TOO EARLY] Best Picture winner? (2027 Oscars)

Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2030? 🧠🕵️

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?

Meaningful two-way conversation between a dolphin/whale and a human before 2040

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Would keyboards still be the primary way of text inputs to a computer for a majority of kids in 2030?

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

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