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Prediction markets for Way Back Now

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

23.4%chance

22164714319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20419

4111

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

15687758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4435

2419

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

15.03%chance

24770507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1942

721

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

Will the US run out of weapons in 2026?

Mar 27, 7:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

3311067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will I major in math?

Oct 18, 10:56 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

10.12%chance

477721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

825

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.03%chance

434153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

983

Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?

Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

72.29%chance

301819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

966

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.38%chance

131078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

1116

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

18828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

964

Democratic Party becomes illegal in the back-channel ways by 2030?

Mar 8, 6:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

7221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

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