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Prediction markets for Way Back Now

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.45%chance

21734607382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19539

4395

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

15687758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4435

2419

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

Will I major in math?

Oct 18, 10:56 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

12.33%chance

467421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1547

862

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.03%chance

434153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

983

Will Trump threaten to cancel AUKUS before 2029?

Feb 7, 8:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

65.96%chance

91972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1392

718

Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?

Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

72.29%chance

301819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

966

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

18828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.27%chance

11778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

1083

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

964

Democratic Party becomes illegal in the back-channel ways by 2030?

Mar 8, 6:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

7221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will Grand Slam Track successfully host at least one meet in 2026?

Jul 25, 3:03 AMDec 31, 8:36 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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