Way It Is News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

"The New Norm" ends

New James Bond actor is presented

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Approval < 35%

USA experiences a recession.

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Government shutdown

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

A major war in Asia occurs

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

A national ban on gender-affirming care

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

The department of education gets desolved

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Dow rises above 65,000

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Approval < 25%

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Trump and Obama shake hands

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump runs for a third term

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

New national park created

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Starship lands on Mars

10% fewer government agencies

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump gets shot

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

"covfefe" posted again

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

US Invasion of any North/South American country

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Cannabis is federally legalized

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Trump and Melania divorce

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

Eliezer finally listens to Krantz.

We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

Other

Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

Someone solves agent foundations

Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).

Orthogonality Thesis is false.

Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.

Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.

Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence

AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.

Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.

Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing

Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)

A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.

AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.

AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm

Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive

The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.

AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly

an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.

I've been a good bing 😊

We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.

The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines

Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.

AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.

A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough

There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%

SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8

Robot Love!!

AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk

The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.

Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.

Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome

AIs never develop coherent goals

Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.

Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works

For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.

An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.

God exists and stops the AGI

Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.

Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.

Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough

Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.

AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.

Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.

Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.

Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.

Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.

Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.

Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol

Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.

High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.

Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)

Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.

Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside

ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.

Something else

Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.

Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)

AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default

AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).

Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.

AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.

Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.

Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.

"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.

A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.

Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

Will Zelensky be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Will Putin be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Will Trump be in power 2026 Jan 1st?

Will Putin be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2026 (lasts for at least 1 year)

Will Zelensky be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2025 (lasts for at least 1 year)

>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2026

Will a successful coup happen in Ukraine before the peace is established?

Nuclear weapon launch aimed in such a way that it causes fewer than 10 civilian deaths (eg stratosphere, battlefield, over ocean) before 2030 by Russia

Will a successful coup happen in Russia before the peace is established?

Russian nuke which causes more than 10 civilian deaths, by 2030

Will Russia or Ukraine gain control over a new city of 250k population by EOY 2024

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2024 (lasts for at least 1 year)

Make the bread taste good

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Watch the video

Autolyse 20 minutes

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Bake it with your best friend.

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Use 50% whole grain flour

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Toast the bread

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Add 50g sugar

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Add a pinch of sugar

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Increase water by 50 g

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Improve the bread

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

it needs more salt

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Half yeast

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Add 2g? of baking soda

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

put butter into it

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Bake one more minute

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Quadruple salt

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Use lemonade instead of water.

Bake one fewer minute

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Bake vegimite into it.

Bake for 5 more minutes

Replace salt with sugar

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Bake vodka into it

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Replace flour with flowers

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Make the bread great again

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Implementing every element listed below.

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Double oven temperature

Halve oven temperature

Play classical music while baking

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Bake your social security number into it.

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Bake in rectangular tin

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Eat the bread with friends

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

I visit Times Square

A friend from [city] comes to NYC and I see them

I explore the High Line

At least 20 people I don't know bet on non-meta propositions on this market

I attend an OBNYC meetup

I visit the New York Public Library

I visit the Empire State Building

I see a Broadway show

I visit the Statue of Liberty

I am at least moderately homesick

I meet someone I've met before at [company]

I see a rat (rattus norvegicus)

I eat a new york bagel

At least 50 people I don't know bet on non-meta propositions on this market

I explore Central Park

I really like the city

I gain the desire to move to NYC

I see a horse

I visit the Met

I visit the MoMA

I gain a romantic interest

I cry at some point

I get a good intuition for what a Kan extension is

I start using at least one "New York ism" in my regular speech

I lose 5 lbs

I visit the Guggenheim Museum

I visit the American Museum of Natural History

At least 100 people I don't know bet on non-meta propositions on this market

I kiss someone

I witness a man arguing passionately with no one

I meet someone I think is smarter than anyone I have ever met before

I hail a cab

I wish I had spent more time doing tourist-y things

Someone signs up primarily to bet in this market

I see at least 4 protests

I resolve a proposition in this market incorrectly

I eat at least 10 meals of plain white rice

My opinion of the United States changes significantly in valence

I eat a bagel with lox and cream cheese from Russ & Daughters

I gain at least 5lbs of weight

I eat something from a street cart that costs less than $5

I attend a pride parade

I play chess in a park

I actively participate in or actively attend a political rally or political protest

I explore Coney Island

I hail a cab in a way that could plausibly be mistaken for a nazi salute

I hear someone say "I'm walkin' here!" unironically

I regret making this market

I witness a violent crime

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Other

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

It is not possible to multitask

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

California is wildly overrated.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

Steven Greer's claims that zero point energy technology has existed since the 50s and could produce abundant free energy for all, but has been kept hidden from the public because it would make oil obsolete.

imports of luxury vehicles have increased to Ukraine. Even many Rolex sellers in Kyiv

Biden voted for trump

There are 100 million illegal immigrants in the US

The COVID-19 Pandemic was a planned event to control populations or was intentionally created by entities like bill gates for depopulation or profit from vaccines

The 2020 election was “rigged”: see description for further resolution criteria

Technologies such as HAARP are a way to disable nuclear ballistic missiles in flight

Technologies, such as HAARP, are being used with a large impact to control weather patterns or cause natural disasters for political or economic gain

5G cellular networks were intentionally developed to create health issues or mind control.

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.

Something that helps maintain an elaborate deception involving a pit fiend.

Making Carissa seem like a god to her (ADDED LATE, MAY BE DISQUALIFIED EVEN IF CORRECT)

Something to assist in extracting information from her mind.

Other

A bluff.

Something to prevent her from committing suicide

Something that will do something unpleasant to her if removed, in order to avoid situations where she enters an Antimagic Field or gets hit by a powerful Dispel.

Something to prevent self-deception, in hopes she will realize what awaits her in Hell and voluntarily help them.

Something that helps locating her or bringing her back if she escapes/leaves

Something to impair her in a way potentially useful for multiple purposes, like the abilitystat penalties.

Something else not predicted by any other answer at the time the market closes.

Makes Abrogail's body into a weapon (like a bomb, or plague vector, or something)

Something to further reduce her abilitystats and be removed bit by bit in order to fake Wish-enhancement.

The answer will never be officially revealed.

None of the options submitted before the One Piece is revealed

Binks' Sake

A Poneglyph

Other

A single piece of currency (e.g. one coin)

An ancient tool which might not technically be a weapon.

The friends they made along the way

A giant pile of gold and jewels

An ancient weapon

Pineapples

YES