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Prediction markets for Waymo

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.49%chance

498762125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26489

3780

When will Waymo offer SF-LA rides?

Nov 13, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:38 PM

2055426

OptionProbability

2027

Aug 1 2026 - Jan 1 2027

Apr 1 2026 - Aug 1 2026

Jan 1 2026 - Apr 1 2026

Before EOY

85

7

5

2

1

Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027

Jun 25, 10:30 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

40%chance

7914918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

817

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

66.02%chance

647730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13908

7205

Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from SFO airport pickup/dropoff/terminal area by the end of 2026?

Sep 17, 8:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.06%chance

172343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

941

Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?

Mar 25, 4:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.59%chance

241985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1587

630

Waymo handles Denver snow?

Sep 6, 1:39 PMApr 1, 1:28 PM

34.25%chance

371955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

722

Waymo available in European Union before 2027?

Apr 16, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.46%chance

201900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

600

Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from LAX airport by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 10:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.6%chance

71088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

988

Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 7:46 AMJan 1, 8:45 AM

52.83%chance

5546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

Waymo available at Rio Rancho City Hall End of 2028

Dec 12, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.14%chance

5527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

704

A Chinese company will surpass Waymo in total global robotaxi fleet size in 2026

Jan 2, 7:42 AMJan 9, 7:59 AM

59.67%chance

9426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1216

822

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