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Prediction markets for Waymo

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.06%chance

407581288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14909

6716

When will Waymo offer SF-LA rides?

Nov 13, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:38 PM

1952881

OptionProbability

2027

Aug 1 2026 - Jan 1 2027

Apr 1 2026 - Aug 1 2026

Jan 1 2026 - Apr 1 2026

Before EOY

82

8

6

2

1

Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027

Jun 25, 10:30 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

47.06%chance

7113621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

943

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

66.08%chance

637720

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13928

7195

Waymo reaches 2 billion miles with three or fewer at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 1:10 AMJan 2, 2:08 AM

73.84%chance

145378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1682

596

Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from SFO airport pickup/dropoff/terminal area by the end of 2026?

Sep 17, 8:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.06%chance

172343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

941

Waymo handles Denver snow?

Sep 6, 1:39 PMApr 1, 1:28 PM

34.25%chance

371955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

722

Waymo available in European Union before 2027?

Apr 16, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.41%chance

181770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1549

646

Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from LAX airport by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 10:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.3%chance

5630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

910

Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 7:46 AMJan 1, 8:45 AM

52.83%chance

5546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

Waymo available at Rio Rancho City Hall End of 2028

Dec 12, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.39%chance

4427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

756

A Chinese company will surpass Waymo in total global robotaxi fleet size in 2026

Jan 2, 7:42 AMJan 9, 7:59 AM

59.67%chance

9426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1216

822

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