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Prediction markets for Waymo

Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?

May 22, 12:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.98%chance

205508701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

38159

2279

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

162128790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11055

9045

When will Waymo offer SF-LA rides?

Nov 13, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:38 PM

1432030

OptionProbability

2027

Apr 1 2026 - Aug 1 2026

Aug 1 2026 - Jan 1 2027

Jan 1 2026 - Apr 1 2026

Before EOY

69

12

10

7

2

Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027

Jun 25, 10:30 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

56.96%chance

578947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1150

869

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

64.35%chance

607115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13407

7472

Waymo reaches 2 billion miles with three or fewer at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 1:10 AMJan 2, 2:08 AM

71.99%chance

145133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1603

624

Waymo handles Denver snow?

Sep 6, 1:39 PMApr 1, 1:28 PM

34.25%chance

371955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

722

Will Waymo be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Jan 23, 8:03 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

67.79%chance

411593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

805

Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from SFO airport pickup/dropoff/terminal area by the end of 2026?

Sep 17, 8:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.48%chance

121543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1855

539

Waymo available in European Union before 2027?

Apr 16, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.03%chance

171420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1332

751

Waymo reports 1 billion miles driven by end of 2030?

Sep 26, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.91%chance

5800

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1683

594

Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 7:46 AMJan 1, 8:45 AM

52.83%chance

4246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

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