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Prediction markets for Waymo One

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

21.31%chance

19838053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

827

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.01%chance

10726001

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1394

718

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

63.71%chance

596835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13221

7577

Will Portland have fully self-driving taxis by the end of 2025?

Dec 16, 12:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.85%chance

453123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3073

571

Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from SF to the Palo Alto area or back by the end of 2025?

Mar 14, 8:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.49%chance

91590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2099

477

Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?

Oct 6, 1:13 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

72.59%chance

181548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1736

350

Which cities will have Waymo One service by mid-2026?

Mar 13, 7:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

151465

OptionProbability

Palo Alto

Washington, D.C.

Miami

Berkeley

Emeryville, California

San Diego

New York City

Sausalito

Boston

Tokyo, Japan

Chicago

Shanghai, China

Delhi, India

Mexico City, Mexico

São Paulo, Brazil

95

63

39

35

34

21

17

15

10

8

6

5

4

4

3

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.77%chance

9913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

Will Tesla robotaxies hit the market before Jan 1 2027?

Nov 11, 12:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.44%chance

17841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?

Oct 13, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.92%chance

19812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

970

Will Comma.ai let me read a book while driving before Tesla does?

May 17, 8:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.86%chance

27545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

975

907

Which car manufacturer will sell a SAE level 3 feature next after BMW?

Mar 28, 7:11 PMSep 9, 9:59 PM

5114

OptionProbability

Other

Hyundai

General Motors

Tesla

Toyota

Stellantis

Ford

Volkswagen

Volvo

Geely

17

14

12

11

8

8

8

8

7

6

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