We News

2 days ago

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

19.85%chance

796429524

OptionVotes

YES

34977

14290

Will we get AGI before 2026?

Dec 10, 1:58 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

3.38%chance

337268668

OptionVotes

YES

4127

878

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.42%chance

281187213

OptionVotes

YES

1508

982

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

44.01%chance

559183511

OptionVotes

YES

4721

3987

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

81158492

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

Before January 2026

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

28.73%chance

254122258

OptionVotes

YES

1094

913

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Jan 17, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.82%chance

54121287

OptionVotes

YES

967

867

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

71%chance

228117803

OptionVotes

YES

1565

639

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

50.95%chance

25194544

OptionVotes

YES

1538

762

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

YES

987

956

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

32.98%chance

5710753

OptionVotes

YES

11036

10936

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

423994

OptionVotes

YES

1057

822

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will we get AGI before 2026?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

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