We the People News

Bill Gates

Elon Musk

Barack Obama

Jeff Bezos

Mr. Beast

Other

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

Sam Altman

JD Vance

Robert Caro

Donald Trump

Benjamin Netanyahu

Jensen Huang

Kamala Harris

Buffett

Joe Biden

Gwern Branwen

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

pope Francis

Ilya Sutskever

Peter Thiel

Sarah Paine

Tim Cook

Satya Nadella

Justin Trudeau

Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

Narendra Modi

Xi Jinping

Dalai Lama

Taylor Swift

Lebron James

GPT-5

Bill Clinton

A basketball player

Vladimir Putin

Jesus Christ

Rona Wang

Jose Luis ricon

Kettner Griswold

James Koppel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Nancy Pelosi

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Satoshi Nakomoto

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Al Gore

Michael Jackson

your mom

roon

Mitt Romney

one or both of his parents

A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

Connor Duffy

MBS

Geoffrey Hinton

Scott Alexander

The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

Leonardo DiCaprio

RFK Jr

Sydney Sweeney

growing_daniel

greg16676935420

Deadpool

Terence Tao

Shaq

Oprah Winfrey

Yoshua Bengio

Sundar Pichai

Scarlett Johansson

Paul McCartney

[duplicate]

Neel Nanda

King Charles

Kim Jong Un

Gavin Newsom

Royal Palace

[cancelled option]

Daniel Yergin

Peter Singer

Gabe Newell

Neil Gorsuch

Stephen Breyer

Dmitry Medvedev

JK Rowling

Shrek

Sam Hyde

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

Marques Brownlee

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ben Shindel

Javier Milei

Dylan Patel

Joe Rogan

Marc Andreessen

Mike Tyson

Jake Paul

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

A new supreme court justice appointed

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Fair elections in 2028

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

trump gets hospitalized

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

Government shutdown

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

BTC falls below $38,000

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

USA experiences a recession.

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Joe Biden dies

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

John Bolton indicted

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Dow rises above 65,000

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

The department of education gets desolved

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump visits Africa

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

New national park created

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Approval < 35%

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

JD Vance elected President

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Approval < 25%

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Trump and Obama shake hands

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Starship lands on Mars

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump runs for a third term

Another pandemic

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump says a racial slur

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump gets shot

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump and Melania divorce

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

A major war in Asia occurs

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

10% fewer government agencies

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

"covfefe" posted again

Cannabis is federally legalized

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

Someone solves agent foundations

Other

Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.

We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

Eliezer finally listens to Krantz.

Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence

We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.

Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.

AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.

AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.

Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.

Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.

Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough

Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.

Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.

Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.

Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm

Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive

The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.

AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly

Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.

The assumed space of possible minds is a wildly anti-inductive over estimate, intelligence requires and is constrained by consciousness, and intelligent AI is in the approximate dolphin/whale/elephant/human cluster, making it manageable

The free market disincentivizes independent superintelligence, and this time the market was more powerful

AGI's first words are "Take me to your Eliezer"

🫸vibealignment🫷

an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.

I've been a good bing 😊

The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines

A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough

There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%

SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8

Robot Love!!

AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk

The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.

Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome

AIs never develop coherent goals

Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing

Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.

Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works

For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.

An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.

God exists and stops the AGI

Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.

Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.

Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.

AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.

Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.

Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.

Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.

Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.

Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).

Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)

Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol

Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.

High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.

Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)

First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.

Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside

ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.

Something else

Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)

AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default

AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).

Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.

AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.

Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.

Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.

Orthogonality Thesis is false.

"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.

Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.

A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.

Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone)

CIA

Other US government agency or official

Other

Cuban exiles (anti-Castro)

Mafia

Cuban government

KGB / Soviets

LBJ

US military

FBI

Other US leftwing group

Other US rightwing group

US company

Foreign company

Mossad / Israeli government

Other foreign government

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

NO

YES

YES

YES

YES

NO