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Prediction markets for Weapons
OptionVotes
442
93
OptionVotes
1069
671
OptionVotes
1470
565
Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
Feb 1, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
32.5%chance
285094
OptionVotes
1455
701
Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
Oct 8, 9:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
23.45%chance
234421
OptionVotes
2592
929
International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?
Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
37.89%chance
214286
OptionVotes
12698
7914
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Jun 29, 8:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
9.87%chance
82257
OptionVotes
3021
331
OptionVotes
1045
905
Will the IDF fight against Abu Shabab (a Palestinian militia they supplied with weapons) by the end of 2026?
Jun 5, 10:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
27.81%chance
7615
OptionVotes
1625
629
OptionVotes
114
105
Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?
Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
25.72%chance
11253
OptionVotes
1030
978
Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040
Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
27.32%chance
11176
OptionVotes
1030
981