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Prediction markets for Web

Will Fortnite or Roblox run in a web browser before Jan 1st 2027?

Jul 2, 7:20 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

4.06%chance

214961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4922

227

Will a non-Chromium based web browser be the most popular browser by the end of 2028?

Oct 11, 5:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.09%chance

143184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3619

276

Will anyone find me a decent web archival program? [M$20,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:17 PMSep 29, 5:14 PM

25.85%chance

112527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1694

590

Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026

Jan 8, 5:08 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

9.64%chance

282136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

306

33

Will a new web browser rendering engine reach over 2% market share by 2035?

Sep 26, 3:43 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

181008

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

704

Will my color-based web game exceed 100 users in a single day?

Jun 17, 2:28 PMDec 31, 3:25 PM

64%chance

7482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1333

750

Will software Web developers be a lower percentage of the workforce in the US in 2030 compared to 2022 ?

Dec 27, 12:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.35%chance

16473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

971

Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?

Mar 5, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.46%chance

17245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

995

Will the Research Domain Criteria term return more than 50,000 results on Web of Science core collection, on 01/01/2030?

Mar 7, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

24.48%chance

2182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

48

Will Manifold Markets (or its web host) partner with Project Glasswing to bolster its own cybersecurity by EOY2026?

Apr 7, 8:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

8156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will there be 3A games on the Web platform before 2030?

Nov 21, 1:49 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

31.64%chance

694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

97

Who DOSsed Finnish Defence Ministry web pages? (suggest answers, may take time to resolve)

Sep 25, 1:19 AMOct 2, 8:59 PM

368

OptionProbability

Russia

Other

Malta

Iran

North Korea

Non state actor

China

Israel

USA

30

12

10

9

9

9

8

8

7

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