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Prediction markets for Web

Will a non-Chromium based web browser be the most popular browser by the end of 2025?

Feb 16, 11:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

35934988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21871

1289

Will OpenAI release a cross-platform web browser by the end of 2026?

Nov 22, 10:01 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

94.22%chance

157143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4036

248

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

40.85%chance

305657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

831

There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years

Sep 16, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

204628

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2027

2025

2024

33

21

21

15

10

Will a non-Chromium based web browser be the most popular browser by the end of 2028?

Oct 11, 5:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.63%chance

122279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2756

363

Will anyone find me a decent web archival program? [M$20,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:17 PMSep 29, 5:14 PM

35.62%chance

92054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1344

744

Will a new web browser rendering engine reach over 2% market share by 2035?

Sep 26, 3:43 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.15%chance

17873

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1360

670

Will software Web developers be a lower percentage of the workforce in the US in 2030 compared to 2022 ?

Dec 27, 12:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.35%chance

16473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

971

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Sep 6, 5:04 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

14.65%chance

11390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

943

Will Fortnite or Roblox run in a web browser before Jan 1st 2027?

Jul 2, 7:20 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

50.65%chance

15335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

933

Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?

Mar 5, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.46%chance

17245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

995

Will OpenAI fix their web interface before 2026?

Jul 1, 9:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

39.15%chance

8103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

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