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Prediction markets for Website

When will Chrome first require manual confirmation to open a non-https website?

Oct 24, 4:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

173648

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2028

2024

2025

2029

2030 or later

2023

87

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

Will I find any serious bugs in my website's API within a week of release?

Jan 27, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.23%chance

373364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1914

702

By 2028, AI can build a website from scratch without more input from humans?

Jan 5, 11:29 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

88.45%chance

161968

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1925

805

Will websites give up on bot detection using captcha-like tasks by 2028?

Mar 14, 11:17 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.53%chance

461894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

790

Will I be able to buy a Trump Phone from the official website at the end of 2027?

Jun 16, 6:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

19550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

7200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.22%chance

8168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

37

Will the County of Los Angeles Department of Public Health's website support HTTPS before the end of 2028?

Jun 13, 11:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57.23%chance

5143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

Will this website be online by 2050?

May 29, 10:17 PMMay 30, 7:59 PM

84.16%chance

6118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

162

28

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at the end of 2027?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

Will a website allow you to generate realistic deepfake videos of suicides by EOY2028?

Apr 23, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.62%chance

870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

71

Will I be the top creator on Manifold when the website shuts down?

Mar 7, 3:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.96%chance

543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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