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Prediction markets for Website

When will Chrome first require manual confirmation to open a non-https website?

Oct 24, 4:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

173648

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2028

2024

2025

2029

2030 or later

2023

87

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

Will I find any serious bugs in my website's API within a week of release?

Jan 27, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.23%chance

373364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1914

702

By 2028, AI can build a website from scratch without more input from humans?

Jan 5, 11:29 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

88.45%chance

161968

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1925

805

Will websites give up on bot detection using captcha-like tasks by 2028?

Mar 14, 11:17 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.53%chance

461894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

790

What will be the most viewed website in the world at the end of 2030?

Mar 19, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

651536

OptionProbability

google.com

Other

youtube.com

openai.com

twitter.com

baidu.com

instagram.com

40

35

21

2

1

1

1

What will be the most viewed website in the world at the end of 2026?

Mar 19, 12:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

321332

OptionProbability

google.com

Other

openai.com

baidu.com

youtube.com

twitter.com

instagram.com

90

5

3

1

0

0

0

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

7200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will Boob.com host an actual website by EOY 2030?

Mar 5, 12:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.48%chance

3166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

123

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at the end of 2027?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.7%chance

12143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will https://ocov2.jpl.nasa.gov/ (orbiting carbon observatory) data be accessible by on the NASA website by EOY2027?

Aug 6, 3:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.38%chance

297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

57

Will a website allow you to generate realistic deepfake videos of suicides by EOY2028?

Apr 23, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.62%chance

870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

71

Will 10 distinct Manifold users submit feature request issues to the Terminator2 website GitHub repo by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.63%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

98

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