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Wells Notices News

US import restrictions on Russian Palladium by January 1, 2026?

Nov 24, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.91%chance

2214170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14279

7003

Lauren Sanchez in the next Bond film?

Aug 14, 4:32 AMApr 30, 10:59 PM

11.28%chance

112867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2626

107

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

14.86%chance

9344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

491

223

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.72%chance

12240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

955

Will it replicate? Genetic and Functional Drivers of Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma (Cell, 2017, by March 2026)

Nov 27, 11:26 AMMar 1, 11:00 AM

6209

OptionProbability

No replication attempt published

Failure to replicate

Retraction/Notice of concern

Controversial resolution

Replication

52

50

41

39

18

Is 7A+ harder than marathon?

Oct 25, 9:50 AMDec 31, 9:06 AM

77.14%chance

6135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

184

54

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

40

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

48.5%chance

866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

135

[don't bet yet, finalizing details] Will a Musk Company or Elon do large geoengineering projects for global warming?

Aug 10, 3:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.08%chance

637

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

127

What route order will be enforced in Tsukihime -The other side of red garden-?

Feb 14, 1:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

223

OptionProbability

Multiple possible route orders

Hisui -> Kohaku -> Akiha -> Satsuki

Other

Akiha -> Hisui -> Kohaku -> Satsuki

30

30

20

19

Teach me how to test my code

Feb 16, 11:31 AM

00

100 bounty to who best resolves this paradox

Jul 21, 8:26 AMJul 21, 9:59 PM

00

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