OptionProbability
Imane Khelif is intersex
The Jews control at least one nation's government
Human didnt evolve from apes
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
√-1 isn't real
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Dead Internet theory
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
The CIA killed JFK
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Gamergate was right
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
China made covid 19 in a lab
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
Princess Diana was assassinated
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Harold Holt murdered
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
A cure for cancer has already been found
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
Israel killed JFK
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Ogopogo is real
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Exercise is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Bush did 9/11
QAnon
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
The moon landing was fake
climate change isn't human caused
Michelle Obama is a man
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Climate change isn’t real
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
95
91
90
88
83
80
76
75
75
74
74
73
71
70
70
69
61
52
50
50
49
48
47
46
46
46
45
43
43
41
40
37
34
33
32
31
31
31
31
30
30
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
28
27
26
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
16
16
16
16
15
15
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Cascading failure (like something went wrong and the recovery procedure had an issue that made it worse)
Loss of synchronism
Strain on electrical/transmission infrastructure principally caused by renewable energy sources
Low or insufficient inertia
Battery storage
Renewables made the grid less stable
Never found root cause
Accidental infrastructure damage (fallen tower, wildlife, etc)
Bad weather
The cause didn't originate in Spain (was propagated by EU grid)
Intended infrastructure damage (cable cut, bomb, etc)
It's declared a cyber attack
Cyber attack & Russia-funded
Cyber attack & independent group
"Intern plugged wrong cable"
Cyber attack & USA-funded
94
61
20
20
20
14
12
9
7
6
4
3
3
2
2
1
OptionProbability
Under 65 yo
Straight
Under 60 yo
Has a STEM degree of any type
Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier
Is an American citizen
If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)
Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)
Speaks a foreign language
Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)
Under 55 yo
Has been a CEO
Is married
Under 50 yo
Has children
Self described person of color
Has ethnic Asian heritage
Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)
Software Engineering background
Was not an American citizen at birth
Went to a private high school
Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past
Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)
Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern
CEO will take office after Q2 2027
Citation count on google scholar is 1k+
Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history
Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)
Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO
Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)
Has attended Davos
Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer
Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)
Non-native English speaker
Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe
Is an only child
Born in the USA
Has ethnic European heritage
Diversity Points Score: 1
Has ever been divorced
Has visited or lived in China
Has PhD
Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university
Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)
Under 45 yo
Has written and published a book either academic or non
Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement
Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage
Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China
Has submitted and received 2+ patents
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday
Diversity Points Score: 0
Under 40 yo
Has Jewish heritage
Neither parent attended college
Was a college-level athlete
Has any public mention of playing pickleball
Has at least 3 children
Is publicly Christian
Diversity Points Score: 2
Diversity Points Score: 5 or more
Blue eyes
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier
Diversity Points Score: 3
Diversity Points Score: 4
If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)
Tattoo
Has served in us govt
Has passed a bar exam
Female
Born in the northeast
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday
Raised in a single parent family
Left-handed
Tattoo visible during inauguration speech
Grew up in poverty
Catholic
Physics Background
Green eyes
Is Hispanic
Both parents had PhDs
LGBT*+
Has military experience
Has worked or attended school in Israel
Is Muslim
Unnatural hair colour
Has ethnic African heritage
Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO
Has a physical disability
Has been to space
Has an ADOS background
Pronouns are not standard
Has a speech impediment
Trans
Is an AI
Has a Manifold account
99
90
90
87
84
84
84
83
71
70
69
68
65
62
62
61
58
57
56
55
53
52
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
46
46
45
44
44
43
43
40
40
40
37
37
37
36
35
35
33
32
32
31
30
29
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
25
24
23
22
22
22
22
19
19
18
18
17
17
17
17
16
15
15
13
13
11
10
9
8
7
3
3
2
2
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1389
948
OptionProbability
25k - 40k
40k - 100k
>100k
<=25k
57
29
10
3
OptionProbability
Before the end of 2200
Before the end of 2100
Before the end of 2050
Before the end of 2040
Before the end of 2027
Before the end of 2035
Before the end of 2028
Before the end of 2029
Before the end of 2030
Before the end of 2026
Before the end of 2025
Before the end of 2024
When majority of kids dont know how to read analog clocks, Rolex has already went bankrupt and no longer a running company
When majority of kids dont know how to read analog clocks, The Big Ben has already collapsed
88
75
70
62
61
59
54
54
54
52
51
48
36
14
OptionProbability
Can speak English
Announced before the end of October
has made statements calling the conflict in Gaza a genocide
normally seen in glasses
60 or older
Writes primarily in a language other than English
Male
fled their home country
70 or older
went to a school in europe at any point in life
bald
photo with Obama exists on the internet at time of announcement
net worth over ten million USD at time of declaration
Singer/Songwriter
Award delayed
has a tattoo known to the public
Last name starts with P
Originally from Africa
Originally from France
Originally from Spain
speaks Chinese
Given to more than one person
Award not accepted by winner
Posthumous
Award not given out
96
84
69
69
63
62
61
57
50
50
38
31
28
26
26
26
15
14
14
14
14
10
8
6
3
OptionProbability
Went to an Ivy League school
Once confirmed, will be the 9th member of the court
Replacing a live, retired Justice
Older than 50
Nominated by a Republican President
Male
White
Has children
Nominated by Joe Biden
85
81
78
56
52
50
50
50
13
OptionProbability
Other
Partisan split; Ds think measures were effective & necessary, Rs think it was a big government conspiracy. Overall 50% think policies went well, 30% too far, 10% not far enough.
mRNA vaccines turned out much more dangerous than expected
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtJJC0nWs9s South Korea, China, Thailand, Vietnam, etc. will be viewed as having WORSE responses than the U.S. India will be praised, though.
Measures were not strict enough, zero COVID was within reach
68
16
14
1
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
80
62