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Prediction markets for Western AI

Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?

Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.3%chance

569655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

489

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

11.39%chance

18896

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1297

1031

When AI girlfriends will become socially acceptable to at least one age group?

Dec 16, 5:17 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

12316

OptionProbability

Later than 2037, if ever

Other

2026, 2027

2028, 2029

2024, 2025

33

30

14

14

10

In what year will the first nationalization of a western bloc AI lab occur?

Sep 1, 2:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7194

OptionProbability

not before 2035

2031

2027

2030

2026

2029

2025

2028

2032

2033

2034

2024

29

19

12

9

7

7

6

6

2

2

2

1

Large anti-AI protest in a Western country by EOY2025?

Jun 6, 12:34 PMDec 31, 1:32 PM

15%chance

7163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will Tumbles bask in the presence of Mira's divine intelligence before 2028?

Dec 2, 1:19 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

69.58%chance

588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

151

66

Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030?

Dec 12, 3:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

47.18%chance

385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

Will at least one Western-based AI/LLM introduce social credit scoring as part of its self-empowerment by EOY2030

Dec 6, 4:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

How many passengers will Western Sydney Airport serve in 2027?

May 4, 3:14 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

00

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Oct 16, 1:57 AM

00

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