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Prediction markets for Western governments

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.28%chance

9653736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18814

1115

Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?

May 13, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.27%chance

152279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2956

338

Will Ukraine have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2035?

May 22, 12:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.09%chance

202263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1728

579

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.03%chance

111818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1999

501

Western major media calls Tibet Xizang before 2027?

Feb 25, 11:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.96%chance

71434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2405

423

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

If China invades Taiwan will they try to cut off the US from Fentanyl?

Mar 25, 9:12 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

21%chance

12738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1361

865

Wagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027

Jan 12, 5:58 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

45.75%chance

7599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

919

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

927

Which regimes will survive until 2028?

Dec 10, 4:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17489

OptionProbability

Russia

North Korea

China

Cuba

Belarus

Iran

Venezeula

91

90

90

86

85

64

2

Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.6%chance

19374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

986

967

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

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