Western governments News

Will Ukraine have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2035?

May 22, 12:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17.92%chance

162118

OptionVotes

YES

2140

467

Putin claims a clip is fake that Western media claim is real before 2026

Dec 21, 8:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.89%chance

131230

OptionVotes

YES

1649

606

Western major media calls Tibet Xizang before 2027?

Feb 25, 11:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.47%chance

61081

OptionVotes

YES

2034

492

Will a russian missile fly into a NATO country by the end of 2025?

Nov 16, 12:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.21%chance

19873

OptionVotes

YES

389

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

YES

1226

927

If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]

Feb 22, 7:44 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

15444

OptionProbability

Western aid shortage / economic collapse in Ukraine

Black swan geopolitical events 🦢

Trump wins US elections and forces Ukraine to cede territories

Decisive Russian military victory

Ukraine runs out of soldiers - further mobilization not feasible

Collapse of Ukraine's government

Which regimes will survive until 2028?

Dec 10, 4:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13385

OptionProbability

Russia

North Korea

China

Belarus

Iran

Cuba

Venezeula

If China invades Taiwan will they try to cut off the US from Fentanyl?

Mar 25, 9:12 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

23.77%chance

11338

OptionVotes

YES

1217

907

Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.64%chance

17305

OptionVotes

YES

987

964

Will China abandon its Hukou system by 2030?

Aug 31, 3:03 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

19.01%chance

5172

OptionVotes

YES

262

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

49.1%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

1066

1035

Lynas reports at least one month production loss in 2026?

Nov 25, 1:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

Western governments News

Prediction markets for Western governments

Prediction markets for Western governments

Prediction markets for Western governments

Will Ukraine have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2035?

Putin claims a clip is fake that Western media claim is real before 2026

Western major media calls Tibet Xizang before 2027?

Will a russian missile fly into a NATO country by the end of 2025?

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]

Which regimes will survive until 2028?

If China invades Taiwan will they try to cut off the US from Fentanyl?

Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?

Will China abandon its Hukou system by 2030?

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Lynas reports at least one month production loss in 2026?

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