Western governments News

USA's 2025 Economist Democracy Index score?

Apr 17, 8:07 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

63843

Will Ukraine have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2035?

May 22, 12:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.2%chance

152098

OptionVotes

YES

2120

472

Putin claims a clip is fake that Western media claim is real before 2026

Dec 21, 8:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.89%chance

131230

OptionVotes

YES

1649

606

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

YES

1226

927

Western major media calls Tibet Xizang before 2027?

Feb 25, 11:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.72%chance

5481

OptionVotes

YES

1434

697

If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]

Feb 22, 7:44 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

15444

OptionProbability

Western aid shortage / economic collapse in Ukraine

Black swan geopolitical events 🦢

Trump wins US elections and forces Ukraine to cede territories

Decisive Russian military victory

Ukraine runs out of soldiers - further mobilization not feasible

Collapse of Ukraine's government

If China invades Taiwan will they try to cut off the US from Fentanyl?

Mar 25, 9:12 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

23.77%chance

11338

OptionVotes

YES

1217

907

Which regimes will survive until 2028?

Dec 10, 4:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12310

OptionProbability

China

Russia

North Korea

Belarus

Iran

Cuba

Venezeula

Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.77%chance

17295

OptionVotes

YES

1025

977

Western major media calls Tibet Xizang before 2026?

Feb 25, 11:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.35%chance

5181

OptionVotes

YES

132

Will China abandon its Hukou system by 2030?

Aug 31, 3:03 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

37.81%chance

472

OptionVotes

YES

162

100

Western governments News

Prediction markets for Western governments

Prediction markets for Western governments

Prediction markets for Western governments

USA's 2025 Economist Democracy Index score?

Will Ukraine have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2035?

Putin claims a clip is fake that Western media claim is real before 2026

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Western major media calls Tibet Xizang before 2027?

If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]

If China invades Taiwan will they try to cut off the US from Fentanyl?

Which regimes will survive until 2028?

Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?

Western major media calls Tibet Xizang before 2026?

Will China abandon its Hukou system by 2030?

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