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Prediction markets for Western governments

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.66%chance

5510864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7931

2959

Will Ukraine have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2035?

May 22, 12:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17.92%chance

162118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2140

467

Western major media calls Tibet Xizang before 2027?

Feb 25, 11:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.13%chance

71103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2074

491

Will Myanmar's junta still be in control of Myanmar through 2026?

Dec 2, 2:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.17%chance

9991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

586

17

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by June 30, 2026?

Jan 12, 5:35 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

69.72%chance

6757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1518

659

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by March 31, 2026?

Jan 12, 4:34 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

30.21%chance

7691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1520

658

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

927

If China invades Taiwan will they try to cut off the US from Fentanyl?

Mar 25, 9:12 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

23.77%chance

11338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

907

Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.08%chance

18310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

936

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

5308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

Wagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027

Jan 12, 5:58 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

40.23%chance

5294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1219

821

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

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