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Prediction markets for When Markets Speak

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

17.37%chance

274107009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1728

763

Which of these people will speak at Voliti Co’s Predict 2026 (predict2026.org)?

Aug 27, 10:44 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

1415931

OptionProbability

Stephen Grugett, Manifold and MNX

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi

Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket

Michael S. Selig, Chairman of the CFTC

Terry Duffy, CME

91

80

46

27

12

10

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

66.88%chance

6313748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1293

793

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Sep 24, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.77%chance

626049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

461

Will we be able to communicate with dogs in English, by 2030?

May 4, 3:13 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.49%chance

854311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2209

1111

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

333412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

892

Will Congress pass sweeping deregulatory measures by the end of 2026?

Feb 27, 5:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.28%chance

241941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

829

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Mar 25, 6:32 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.93%chance

491642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

908

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.38%chance

131078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

1116

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

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