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Prediction markets for When Markets Speak

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

13.98%chance

24770242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2057

702

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

166460

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

54

19

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Sep 24, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.12%chance

615978

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1261

513

Will we be able to communicate with dogs in English, by 2030?

May 4, 3:13 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.49%chance

854311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2209

1111

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

333412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

892

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.95%chance

632385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1476

649

Will Congress pass sweeping deregulatory measures by the end of 2026?

Feb 27, 5:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.28%chance

241941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

829

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Mar 25, 6:32 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.93%chance

491642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

908

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.38%chance

131078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

1116

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

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