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Prediction markets for When Markets Speak

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

33%chance

5711974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1490

593

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Sep 24, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.72%chance

615956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1283

490

Will we be able to communicate with dogs in English, by 2030?

May 4, 3:13 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

17.8%chance

844295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2281

1095

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163510

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

333412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

892

Will Congress pass sweeping deregulatory measures by the end of 2026?

Feb 27, 5:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.25%chance

231891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1284

779

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Mar 25, 6:32 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.93%chance

491642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

908

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70.71%chance

321418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

953

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.27%chance

11778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

1083

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

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