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Prediction markets for When Markets Speak

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Sep 24, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45%chance

605906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

546

Will we be able to communicate with dogs in English, by 2030?

May 4, 3:13 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

17.8%chance

844295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2281

1095

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

90.88%chance

774122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3322

444

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163500

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

333412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

892

Will someone manipulate their own mention market again?

Nov 13, 3:52 AMMar 2, 5:59 AM

38.24%chance

182229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Mar 25, 6:32 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.93%chance

491642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

908

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70.71%chance

311318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

953

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.8%chance

8593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

1115

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

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