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Top stories

House Oversight Panel Probes Wikimedia for Alleged Anti-Israel and Foreign Bias

US Domestic Policy

House Oversight Panel Probes Wikimedia for Alleged Anti-Israel and Foreign Bias

Authors

29

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Wikipedia

Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)

Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.32%chance

72109404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10376

758

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Apr 6, 9:52 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

11%chance

10013541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3483

104

Will Wikipedia accept prediction markets as a source before 2030?

Dec 29, 3:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36%chance

4411981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1171

367

Will Israel be victorious in the current Gaza-Israel conflict? [According to Wikipedia]

Oct 10, 2:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.77%chance

389290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

736

Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031?

Jun 2, 7:17 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

35.67%chance

538697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1343

745

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

243103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom be listed on the Wikipedia best video games of all time?

Oct 14, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

80.38%chance

291578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

921

Will Wikipedia be unavailable in the UK before 2027 due to the OSA?

Jul 29, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.48%chance

201296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1857

539

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.31%chance

101108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3585

2721

Will Macron's english wikipedia article mention the 2025 apparent domestic violence incident by mid 2026

Jun 2, 6:02 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

35.31%chance

14689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1354

739

In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?

Sep 1, 4:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.92%chance

16608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

966

Will a VR video game make the Wikipedia "best of all time" list by 2030?

Nov 8, 8:36 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

70.44%chance

17348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

958

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