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Prediction markets for Wikipedia
Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)
Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM
2.35%chance
72114465
OptionVotes
15315
596
Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031?
Jun 2, 7:17 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
20.21%chance
559201
OptionVotes
1987
503
Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?
Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
21%chance
263463
OptionVotes
1956
520
OptionVotes
3779
265
Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?
Dec 29, 11:49 PMDec 29, 11:49 PM
23.41%chance
92245
OptionVotes
1809
553
By 2040, will Wikipedia cite de Vere as the true author of the works traditionally attributed Shakespeare?
Jul 19, 12:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15.21%chance
92012
OptionVotes
2361
424
Will Wikipedia be unavailable in the UK before 2027 due to the OSA?
Jul 29, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.38%chance
201807
OptionVotes
2346
426
Will Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom be listed on the Wikipedia best video games of all time?
Oct 14, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
80.38%chance
291578
OptionVotes
1196
921
Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028
Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
40.31%chance
101108
OptionVotes
3585
2721
In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?
Sep 1, 4:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
40.92%chance
16608
OptionVotes
1043
966
Will any mobile game reach a player count of 700 million players before 2027, according to Wikipedia's list?
Apr 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30.72%chance
15367
OptionVotes
1198
890
Will a VR video game make the Wikipedia "best of all time" list by 2030?
Nov 8, 8:36 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM
70.44%chance
17348
OptionVotes
1079
958