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Wild West News
Prediction markets for Wild West
Prediction markets for Wild West
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think AI-caused extinction is more likely?
Jan 30, 5:05 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
12.26%
chance
60
5653
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2457
203
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?
Mar 3, 1:41 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
11.29%
chance
46
4116
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2622
208
Will a high-profile news story about my egg freezing journey lead to problems working with clinics in the future
Sep 11, 9:27 PM
Dec 31, 10:19 PM
33%
chance
28
3390
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1425
702
Will it be common knowledge that farmed fish, eggs and chicken produce more suffering than other animal products? (2050)
Apr 13, 2:04 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
63.34%
chance
6
104
Option
Votes
NO
YES
141
87
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