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Windows AI News

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

Will Antoine Greizmann play a competitive match for Orlando City before EOY 2026

Feb 24, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.16%chance

810785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5847

171

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Jul 17, 4:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

42%chance

707063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1272

725

Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030?

Aug 14, 8:31 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.22%chance

362487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1280

904

Will there be crewed Starship flights to Mars in 4 years if there are successful launches 2 years from now?

Sep 7, 11:19 PMJul 15, 6:59 AM

19.75%chance

131499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2016

496

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

77.45%chance

5855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

540

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19814

OptionProbability

2044-2045

2029-2030

2028-2029

2027-2028

2030-2031

2031-2032

2026-2027

2024-2025

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

28

23

19

12

6

5

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will Windows 12 or the next major windows successor be announced?

Apr 4, 3:00 AMDec 31, 2:59 AM

2290

OptionProbability

2028 or later

Jul-Dec 2027

Jan-Jun 2027

Oct-Dec 2026

Jul-Sep 2026

Apr-Jun 2026

33

22

18

13

9

5

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?

Nov 19, 8:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.48%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

843

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5194

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

56

51

30

24

22

Will Sam Darnold be the only QB from the 2018 class to win a Super Bowl?

Feb 13, 7:42 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

20%chance

4131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Best 8-hour AI score on RE-Bench >= 0.8 by what year?

Jul 16, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

292

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

83

76

74

66

60

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