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Prediction markets for Windows AI

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

During the Super Bowl, will Trump whine about Bad Bunny like a pathetic little bitch?

Feb 3, 9:47 PMFeb 8, 11:59 PM

72.52%chance

1286723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1625

615

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Jul 17, 4:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

31.3%chance

636532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

559

Will Artemis II fly before Starship Flight 12?

Jan 9, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.97%chance

193566

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1603

624

Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030?

Aug 14, 8:31 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.06%chance

332233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1678

839

Will there be crewed Starship flights to Mars in 4 years if there are successful launches 2 years from now?

Sep 7, 11:19 PMJul 15, 6:59 AM

19.75%chance

131499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2016

496

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16695

OptionProbability

2044-2045

2029-2030

2028-2029

2030-2031

2027-2028

2031-2032

2026-2027

2024-2025

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

34

25

21

7

5

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.7%chance

4555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1553

644

Will Congress fund the Department of Homeland Security by February 13?

Feb 4, 2:30 PMFeb 14, 4:59 AM

39.59%chance

5438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

809

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?

Nov 19, 8:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.48%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

843

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6103

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

46

35

11

7

Hardware Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Dec 7, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

60

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