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Prediction markets for Windows AI

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Will Artemis II fly before Starship Flight 12?

Jan 9, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.34%chance

5718210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1470

681

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Jul 17, 4:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

41%chance

696889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1295

708

2026 CONCACAF Champions Cup Champion

Feb 12, 1:16 AMJun 1, 11:59 PM

23429

OptionProbability

Cruz Azul

Seattle Sounders FC

Club América

Deportivo Toluca

LAFC

Tigres UANL

LA Galaxy

Nashville SC

Inter Miami CF

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

LD Alajuelense

FC Cincinnati

Philadelphia Union

San Diego FC

Mount Pleasant FA

CF Monterrey

Other

18

15

14

12

9

8

8

7

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030?

Aug 14, 8:31 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.2%chance

342287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1792

824

Will OpenAI release a super-app combining ChatGPT, Codex, and Atlass apps, before May 1 2026?

Mar 22, 3:26 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

23%chance

181872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1830

546

Will there be crewed Starship flights to Mars in 4 years if there are successful launches 2 years from now?

Sep 7, 11:19 PMJul 15, 6:59 AM

19.75%chance

131499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2016

496

Will A-Levels get cancelled in GCC

Mar 23, 7:18 PMMay 11, 7:16 PM

28.06%chance

8943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

510

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.7%chance

4555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1553

644

Will Antoine Greizmann play a competitive match for Orlando City before EOY 2026

Feb 24, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.32%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

805

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?

Nov 19, 8:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.48%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

843

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4111

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

83

81

50

50

32

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