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Prediction markets for Windows AI

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28379

3002

Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?

Aug 1, 6:35 AMAug 1, 6:31 AM

97.6%chance

1014031

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6376

157

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Jul 17, 4:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

42%chance

707063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1272

725

Kimi K4 released in 2026?

Jul 25, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

134235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030?

Aug 14, 8:31 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.22%chance

362487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1280

904

Will there be crewed Starship flights to Mars in 4 years if there are successful launches 2 years from now?

Sep 7, 11:19 PMJul 15, 6:59 AM

19.75%chance

131499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2016

496

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

77.45%chance

5855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

540

Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?

May 8, 3:47 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

13%chance

9380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?

Nov 19, 8:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.48%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

843

Software Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Dec 7, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.34%chance

9228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

158

63

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6210

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

61

51

30

24

22

When will be possible play GTA VI online?

Sep 13, 9:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

238

OptionProbability

Nov-Dec 2026

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2027

Jan-Jun 2028

Jul-Dec 2028

2029 or after

31

29

20

7

7

7

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