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Prediction markets for Windows Search

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Jul 17, 4:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.88%chance

727116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

690

Which month will CONTROL: Resonant release in?

Mar 15, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6794

OptionProbability

September

May

June

July

August

October

Other

April

94

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.86%chance

18462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

1016

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?

Nov 19, 8:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.48%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

843

Will "Zootopia 3" be released by the end of 2030?

Dec 2, 6:07 AMDec 31, 11:58 PM

57.36%chance

10200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

87

Will MMORPGs come back before 2040?

Dec 6, 12:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.55%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

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