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Prediction markets for Windows Search

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Jul 17, 4:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

42%chance

707063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1272

725

Which month will CONTROL: Resonant release in?

Mar 15, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3597

OptionProbability

September

October

Other

July

August

April

May

June

81

5

5

3

3

1

1

1

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.74%chance

17460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

1014

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?

Nov 19, 8:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.48%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

843

Will "Zootopia 3" be released by the end of 2030?

Dec 2, 6:07 AMDec 31, 11:58 PM

50%chance

8161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

101

Will MMORPGs come back before 2040?

Dec 6, 12:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.55%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

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