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Windows Update News

When will a non-Transformer model become the top open source LLM?

Feb 15, 7:31 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

261345

OptionProbability

In 2030 or earlier

In 2029 or earlier

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

73

68

65

63

60

0

0

will gta 6 come out before the end of 2026

Apr 18, 9:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.16%chance

201345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

343

29

Will I give birth before age 30?

Mar 9, 3:45 PMApr 16, 2:29 PM

62.48%chance

121171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

Will Windows's desktop market share in 2026 be at least 5% lower than in 2024?

Mar 18, 5:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76%chance

20890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

476

92

New gemini version out in june

Jun 8, 10:37 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

37.19%chance

21439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will the US undergo Stagflation before the 2026 midterms? (Bounds Revised)

Feb 24, 4:33 PMMay 3, 10:59 PM

3435

OptionProbability

High Inflation + Low GDP + High Unemployment (Stagflation)

Low Inflation + Low GDP

High Inflation + Normal GDP

Low Inflation + High GDP

Low GDP Only

All Metrics Within Normal Bounds

High Inflation + High GDP

High GDP Only

48

9

8

8

8

8

6

6

When will Windows 12 or the next major windows successor be announced?

Apr 4, 3:00 AMDec 31, 2:59 AM

2290

OptionProbability

2028 or later

Jul-Dec 2027

Jan-Jun 2027

Oct-Dec 2026

Jul-Sep 2026

Apr-Jun 2026

33

22

18

13

9

5

Will there be a VAR/refereeing controversy that causes a team to officially protest a World Cup 2026 group-stage result

Jun 16, 2:27 PMJun 28, 11:59 PM

66.48%chance

8180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

71

Best 8-hour AI score on RE-Bench >= 0.8 by what year?

Jul 16, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

292

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

83

76

74

66

60

Will I still be active on Manifold in 1 year?

Jun 13, 7:58 PMJun 13, 7:58 PM

55.16%chance

330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026?

Jun 24, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15

OptionProbability

DeepSeek

Anthropic

Xiaomi

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

MiniMax

Tencent

OpenAI

Moonshot AI

Zhipu / Z.ai

StepFun

Other (any company not listed above)

14

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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