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Prediction markets for Windows Update

Kimi K4 released in 2026?

Jul 25, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

134235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

Will the US undergo Stagflation before the 2026 midterms? (Bounds Revised)

Feb 24, 4:33 PMMay 3, 10:59 PM

41786

OptionProbability

High Inflation + Low GDP + High Unemployment (Stagflation)

All Metrics Within Normal Bounds

High Inflation + Normal GDP

High Inflation + High GDP

Low GDP Only

High GDP Only

Low Inflation + High GDP

Low Inflation + Low GDP

23

23

18

10

10

8

5

4

will gta 6 come out before the end of 2026

Apr 18, 9:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93.29%chance

211375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

373

27

Will I give birth before age 30?

Mar 9, 3:45 PMApr 16, 2:29 PM

62.48%chance

121171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

Will Windows's desktop market share in 2026 be at least 5% lower than in 2024?

Mar 18, 5:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.48%chance

21940

OptionVotes

NO

YES

526

78

Will world population reach 8.3 billion before 2028 according to the UN?

Aug 18, 9:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.39%chance

13826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

558

12

When will Windows 12 or the next major windows successor be announced?

Apr 4, 3:00 AMDec 31, 2:59 AM

2290

OptionProbability

2028 or later

Jul-Dec 2027

Jan-Jun 2027

Oct-Dec 2026

Jul-Sep 2026

Apr-Jun 2026

33

22

18

13

9

5

Best 8-hour AI score on RE-Bench >= 0.8 by what year?

Jul 16, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

292

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

83

76

74

66

60

Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026?

Jun 24, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

573

OptionProbability

DeepSeek

Zhipu / Z.ai

Other (any company not listed above)

Xiaomi

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

MiniMax

Tencent

Moonshot AI

StepFun

Anthropic

OpenAI

16

10

10

9

8

8

8

8

8

8

5

5

Will Daniel Lord publicly state that he is in a romantic relationship before January 1, 2027?

Aug 20, 8:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.28%chance

570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Will a visible “chemtrail” be captured by a UW–Madison rooftop camera between 9 AM and 1 PM CT on September 24th, 2026?

Sep 17, 6:40 PMSep 24, 1:55 PM

41.41%chance

654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will I still be active on Manifold in 1 year?

Jun 13, 7:58 PMJun 13, 7:58 PM

63.85%chance

452

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

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