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Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

May 5, 11:03 AMJan 2, 1:16 AM

3.14%chance

10767083208

OptionVotes

YES

10588

1949

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Feb 4, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.19%chance

8024167899

OptionVotes

YES

3663

1798

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Mar 11, 5:11 PMJan 2, 10:00 AM

6.06%chance

4631710990

OptionVotes

YES

6263

1698

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11%chance

316855080

OptionVotes

YES

7687

3517

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Feb 26, 6:16 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

12.09%chance

201282138

OptionVotes

YES

4175

1332

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029?

May 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

1%chance

7739798

OptionVotes

YES

14685

934

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2150?

May 19, 8:11 AMMay 24, 9:59 PM

12.01%chance

4536828

OptionVotes

YES

1672

448

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2032?

May 14, 7:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.86%chance

7219709

OptionVotes

YES

5508

865

Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?

Apr 7, 2:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.36%chance

293378

OptionVotes

YES

1485

878

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.37%chance

171427

OptionVotes

YES

1104

858

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.76%chance

11242

OptionVotes

YES

1135

926

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Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2150?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2032?

Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?

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