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Prediction markets for Withdraw

Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026?

Aug 4, 9:49 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8%chance

4726763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 12:50 PMMar 31, 8:59 PM

1%chance

3619325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Donald Trump attempts to withdraw from NATO

Jan 27, 3:17 PMDec 2, 11:01 PM

297818

OptionProbability

Trump -> Stay

Trump -> Withdraw

Biden -> Stay (NO)

Biden -> Withdraw (NO)

Other -> Withdraw (NO)

Other -> Stay (NO)

87

12

1

0

0

0

Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?

Dec 9, 2:52 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

16%chance

332884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

690

If Manifold begins allowing real-money withdrawals, will its accuracy improve?

Nov 17, 5:04 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

61.78%chance

472540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

834

Will Israel withdraw from the West Bank by 2050?

Sep 12, 7:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.92%chance

262418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

639

Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2027?

Oct 26, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

79.7%chance

141295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

977

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

161070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

940

Will Germany withdraw its gold from US vaults?

Jan 25, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.64%chance

161017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1578

634

Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump?

Jun 11, 8:18 PMJan 21, 11:59 AM

38.51%chance

7561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

791

Will any country threaten withdrawal from the UN by 2028?

Apr 5, 6:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

7100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

133

Will the US withdraw from the 1967 Protocol on the Status of Refugees by 2028?

Jul 15, 5:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.87%chance

385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

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