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Prediction markets for Withdraw

Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026?

Aug 4, 9:49 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6.56%chance

4727218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3774

265

Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?

Dec 9, 2:52 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

19.69%chance

373172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

552

If Manifold begins allowing real-money withdrawals, will its accuracy improve?

Nov 17, 5:04 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

61.78%chance

472540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

834

Will Israel withdraw from the West Bank by 2050?

Sep 12, 7:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18%chance

262427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

598

Will Germany withdraw its gold from US vaults?

Jan 25, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.74%chance

231980

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2230

448

Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2027?

Oct 26, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

79.7%chance

141295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

977

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.17%chance

191156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

933

Will Bernie Sanders withdraw his endorsement of Graham Platner (or will Platner drop out before he does so)?

Oct 22, 2:14 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

8.28%chance

141131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

333

30

Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump?

Jun 11, 8:18 PMJan 21, 11:59 AM

51.3%chance

7851

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

974

Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?

Jul 10, 1:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.69%chance

19596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

945

Will any country threaten withdrawal from the UN by 2028?

Apr 5, 6:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

7100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

133

When will Polymarket disable permissionless pUSD withdrawals?

May 4, 1:36 PMDec 31, 2:02 PM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028 or later

33

33

33

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