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Prediction markets for Withdraw

Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026?

Aug 4, 9:49 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

4.2%chance

4728218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4774

209

Will the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?

Mar 1, 3:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

20%chance

717359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

222

66

Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?

Dec 9, 2:52 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

19.69%chance

373172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

552

If Manifold begins allowing real-money withdrawals, will its accuracy improve?

Nov 17, 5:04 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

63.58%chance

482590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

805

Will Israel withdraw from the West Bank by 2050?

Sep 12, 7:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18%chance

262427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

598

Will Germany withdraw its gold from US vaults?

Jan 25, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.44%chance

262119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2176

460

Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2027?

Oct 26, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

79.7%chance

141295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

977

Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump?

Jun 11, 8:18 PMJan 21, 11:59 AM

51.3%chance

7851

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

974

Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?

Jul 10, 1:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.31%chance

19601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

940

Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2026?

Oct 26, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

50%chance

12396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

80

Will Alberta successfully create an Alberta Pension Plan (APP) after withdrawing from the Canadian Pension Plan (CPP)?

Oct 14, 6:38 PMDec 31, 6:59 AM

14.28%chance

8200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

71

When will Polymarket disable permissionless pUSD withdrawals?

May 4, 1:36 PMDec 31, 2:02 PM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028 or later

33

33

33

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