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Prediction markets for WON

[ACX 2026] Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be a country that has never won before?

Jan 6, 10:57 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

21%chance

369283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5447

3216

If Trump won the election, Will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than it was in 2022?

Jan 13, 5:59 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

3%chance

324917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4425

743

The first fully autonomous vehicle will be sold to consumers in 2026 — but it won’t be from Tesla

Jan 2, 7:44 AMJan 10, 7:59 AM

21.6%chance

62435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1908

526

The next American mission that lands a human on the surface of the Moon won't involve SLS

Apr 20, 1:05 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.03%chance

252059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

957

In 2050, we still won't be able to exactly duplicate a strawberry.

Feb 23, 7:50 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

54%chance

281483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

389

Will at least one World Marathon Major be won under 2 hours every year until end of 2029?

Apr 26, 1:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.03%chance

261355

OptionVotes

NO

YES

658

415

Will at least 3 of the 10 Technologies that Won't Exist in 5 Years, exist in 5 years?

Jun 25, 8:30 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

19.18%chance

61200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2053

487

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

11920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

961

Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 23, 5:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.59%chance

5656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1604

926

Will the 2026-27 CFP be won by a conference champion?

Jan 22, 2:42 PMJan 19, 4:00 AM

64.6%chance

2351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

740

How many seats will be won by Estonian Reform Party in the next Estonian parliamentary election?

Mar 18, 11:17 AMMar 8, 11:59 PM

7230

OptionProbability

More than 30

More than 33

More than 36

More than 39

28

25

17

12

Will Washington, D.C. be won by any party other than the Democrats in any POTUS election in the 21st century?

Jul 26, 4:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.39%chance

9149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

211

172

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