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Prediction markets for Wonder Wars

Will XTC/MDMA be legalized anywhere in the world before 2035

Jun 16, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:01 PM

82%chance

4231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

46

I make a coin-pusher game?

Dec 3, 9:43 PMApr 5, 10:59 PM

23.58%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

How many of these jobs will have a 15% or more drop in employment plausibly attributable to AI by 2031?

Feb 12, 3:22 PMJan 1, 3:22 PM

34.44%chance

876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

184

Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?

Jul 6, 9:38 PMJan 1, 10:38 PM

75.28%chance

675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

245

131

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