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Word Options News

    Prediction markets for Word Options

    Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

    Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
    25.96%chance
    774387094

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    6480

    3424

    Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

    Dec 8, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    135127633

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

    Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

    Zohran Mamdani

    Sam Altman

    Xi Jinping

    Mark Carney

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

    Jerome Powell

    Jensen Huang

    Self Driving Cars (Uber, Waymo, etc.)

    The People of Minnesota (and other variations)

    Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

    [Next FOMC Chair]

    Robots (not self driving cars)

    Epstein

    65

    12

    5

    4

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

    Nov 30, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    166101364

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

    Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

    Bad Bunny

    Zohran Mamdani

    Marco Rubio

    Xi Jinping

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Elon Musk

    Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]

    Sam Altman

    Vladimir Putin

    Gavin Newsom

    Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

    Jeffrey Epstein

    Dario Amodei

    James Talarico

    AOC

    Jerome Powell

    Sydney Sweeney

    Demis Hassabis

    Larry Ellison

    Jensen Huang

    Gen Z

    Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

    Nicholas Maduro

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

    Lisa Su

    Fei-Fei Li

    Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

    Millenials

    Gen X

    Baby Boomers

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Scott Bessent

    Sundar Pichai

    Narendra Modi

    Ursula von der Leyen

    Jasmine Crockett

    Graham Platner

    Kevin Hassett

    Gen Alpha

    Claudia Sheinbaum

    Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

    Ahmed al-Sharaa

    Jon Ossoff

    Kevin Warsh

    53

    10

    6

    5

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

    Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    12977307

    OptionProbability

    Massive fraud

    Multiple counts of perjury

    Advanced human technology

    Non-human intelligence

    36

    31

    23

    9

    When will the next US recession be?

    Aug 8, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:06 PM
    3621202

    OptionProbability

    Before Q1 2030

    Before Q3 2029

    Before Q1 2029

    Before Q3 2028

    Before Q1 2028

    Before Q3 2027

    Before Q1 2027

    Q1 2030 or later

    Before Q3 2026

    Before Q1 2026

    70

    62

    58

    57

    55

    42

    32

    27

    11

    1

    Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?

    Feb 8, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    3810438

    OptionProbability

    Nobody (linked market resolves NO)

    Other

    Google (eg Gemini)

    OpenAI (eg ChatGPT)

    Anthropic (eg Claude)

    IBM (eg Watson)

    Microsoft (eg Copilot)

    Mira (https://x.com/_Mira___Mira_)

    DeepSeek

    Amazon

    Meta

    65

    15

    11

    7

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    How many games will LeBron James end his NBA career having played?

    Nov 7, 7:00 PMAug 2, 4:59 AM
    118476

    OptionProbability

    More than 1504 (John Stockton)

    More than 1522 (Dirk Nowitzki)

    More than 1541 (Vince Carter)

    More than 1560 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar)

    More than 1581 (roughly a full season from question creation)

    More than 1611 (Robert Parish, all-time leader)

    More than 1630 (a lot)

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    99

    54

    Who will Jake Paul have a boxing match with before he retires?

    Mar 9, 9:34 AMMar 4, 1:29 PM
    111856

    OptionProbability

    Mike Tyson

    Mike Perry

    Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

    Canelo Alvarez

    Conor McGregor

    KSI

    Ryan Garcia

    Logan Paul

    Johnny Eblen

    Neeraj Goyat

    Nick Diaz

    Jorge Masvidal

    Vitor Belfort

    Francis Ngannou

    Floyd Mayweather

    100

    100

    99

    72

    58

    50

    46

    46

    46

    29

    24

    24

    24

    24

    5

    Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

    Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    32.3%chance
    271379

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1177

    880

    How long will it take to create an app that automatically translates sign language live from a video stream?

    Mar 19, 11:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    391358

    OptionProbability

    less than 2 years

    less than 4 years

    less than 14 years

    less than 6 years

    less than 12 years

    less than 16 years

    less than 8 years

    less than 10 years

    less than 18 years

    more than 18 years

    68

    13

    5

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    1

    1

    Will Diablo V have a non-isomorphic camera?

    Mar 21, 7:24 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    8.5%chance
    3154

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    239

    50

    A free web browser can search for text within images on web pages, by mid 2027

    Nov 25, 9:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
    50.19%chance
    459

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

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