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Prediction markets for Work

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

32.62%chance

297234945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3183

1529

Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?

Oct 13, 9:55 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

13.03%chance

9324308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2586

387

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1681

1326

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.76%chance

11515166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1880

1102

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

1137257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1939

907

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

Jun 5, 12:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.18%chance

435831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

589

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.47%chance

594126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

652

On June 1st 2027 will Sci-Hub be working again?

May 2, 6:50 PMJun 2, 5:59 AM

45.7%chance

292538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1345

413

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

534

Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?

Aug 1, 5:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.89%chance

211226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

711

Will Tesla announce they are working on a flying car by 2030?

Mar 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.16%chance

211195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1388

720

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

May 27, 2:14 PMMay 26, 11:59 PM

73.57%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

1021

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