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Prediction markets for Work

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.32%chance

299235070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3279

1484

Will BTE's secret plan work?

Oct 23, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5%chance

121152920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5107

395

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

50%chance

11815407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1704

1259

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1681

1326

Does Nectome's preservation protocol work?

Mar 12, 6:22 AMJan 2, 6:11 AM

49.21%chance

3611603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10159

9844

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.15%chance

1147307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

957

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.34%chance

634617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1837

515

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

Apr 14, 3:22 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

45%chance

632824

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

834

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

534

Will Tesla announce they are working on a flying car by 2030?

Mar 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.16%chance

211195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1388

720

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

May 27, 2:14 PMMay 26, 11:59 PM

73.57%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

1021

Previously unpublished Cormac McCarthy work released before 2028?

May 21, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.55%chance

7225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

100

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