World News

Who will be the next World Leader to Leave?

Feb 23, 3:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11598052

OptionProbability

Benjamin Netanyahu

Lula Da Silva

Volodomyr Zelenskyy

Keir Starmer

Donald Trump

Emmanuel Macron

Javier Milei

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Vladimir Putin

Anthony Albanese

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.61%chance

11052040

OptionVotes

YES

12017

9434

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.67%chance

9243679

OptionVotes

YES

1050

916

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

YES

987

956

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64%chance

3014612

OptionVotes

YES

13272

8386

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.07%chance

18312142

OptionVotes

YES

3887

1744

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

769927

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Jun 25, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74%chance

437735

OptionVotes

YES

1687

593

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Jan 4, 11:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.34%chance

576621

OptionVotes

YES

1012

938

Who will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?

Jul 15, 11:30 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

63231

OptionProbability

Other

Gen. G

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

Oct 31, 5:12 AMSep 30, 3:59 PM

6184

OptionProbability

South Africa

New Zealand

Ireland

France

England

Other

Argentina

🧠 Which LLM will have the most real-world commercial usage by the end of 2025?

Aug 3, 5:29 AMAug 6, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

OpenAI's GPT-4.5 / GPT-5

Anthropic's Claude 3 / 4

Google DeepMind's Gemini 1.5 / 2

Meta's LLaMA 3.x

Mistral models (Mixtral, Mistral 8x22B, etc.)

xAI's Grok (via X / Twitter)

Cohere's Command R+ or similar

Alibaba’s Qwen series

DeepSeek models (DeepSeek-VL, DeepSeek Coder, etc.)

Other (please comment)

Other

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Who will be the next World Leader to Leave?

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Who will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

🧠 Which LLM will have the most real-world commercial usage by the end of 2025?

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