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Prediction markets for World Chess Champion

Will Magnus Carlsen become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by 2031?

Jun 6, 12:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.55%chance

557969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1441

802

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.55%chance

433595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1634

496

Will the 2023 Chess World Champion be the highest rated player at any point before the 2025 Chess World Championship match?

Jan 29, 10:46 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

3.43%chance

163418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4204

728

Will these people ever be FIDE world chess champion? (end mid 2044)

Mar 30, 7:21 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

232778

OptionProbability

Someone under 40 at the time of gaining the title

Dommaraju Gukesh

Fabi

R Praggnanandhaa

Alireza Firouzja

Hikaru Nakamura

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Wesley So

Giri

A woman

Daniel Naroditsky

100

100

33

31

25

22

18

15

8

6

1

Will Faustino Oro become world chess champion by 2040?

Jun 4, 3:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.54%chance

132639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2247

445

Will Ian Nepomniachtchi ever become World Chess Champion?

Dec 25, 1:22 PMJul 15, 6:59 AM

11.1%chance

172517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1977

776

Will Hans Niemann become World Chess Champion within the next 25 years?

Jan 31, 4:54 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

13.96%chance

241925

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

489

Will Alireza Firouzja be World Chess Champion by end of 2030?

Apr 17, 9:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.3%chance

221754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1361

885

Within 25 years there will be a female world chess champion (FIDE).

Jan 20, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

10.81%chance

211728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

948

Will Fabiano Caruana become world chess champion by 2050?

Nov 29, 1:18 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

20.66%chance

161190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

879

Will Alireza Firouzja be World Chess Champion by end of 2040?

Apr 18, 9:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.46%chance

16957

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

891

Will there be a woman World Chess Champion before 2060?

Mar 7, 9:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.71%chance

10497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

152

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