OptionProbability
He also wins the popular vote.
The S&P 500 will be above 5000 at the end of 2024
He won 300+ electoral votes
The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028.
Trump pardons himself (regardless of whether the self-pardon is overruled by court decision)
Trump serves full second term
He serves the full term
Democrats win the House majority in 2026.
Inflation is higher when he leaves office than when he takes office
He gets impeached again.
His VP becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.
Ukraine war reaches a ceasefire that is observed for 1 year
Democrats win Senate majority in 2026
Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living
he has a fatal or near-fatal health issue while in office
The U.S. has a higher World Press Freedom Index in 2028 than 2024.
A national abortion ban is passed during his term.
Trump is President on January 21, 2029
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is President on January 21, 2029
Humanity goes extinct anyway, because AI
Biden runs for president again in 2028
100
94
88
83
81
73
72
65
45
38
37
20
13
5
2
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
3645
602
It rises above 95
It stays at 95
It drops below 95
It drops below 90
34
24
