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Prediction markets for World Top 10

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.26%chance

5735087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3367

355

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

638825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1647

341

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.55%chance

433595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1634

496

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.16%chance

202757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

801

Will the Saudi Pro League be in the top 10 strongest football/soccer leagues in the world by 2030?

Aug 17, 8:26 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

54.74%chance

261088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

955

Which of the world's 10 largest companies* will still be in the top 10 by 2030?

Jan 16, 8:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11485

OptionProbability

Microsoft

Alphabet

Apple

Amazon

Nvidia

Meta

Berkshire Hathaway

Tesla

Saudi Aramco

Eli Lilly

86

84

80

70

60

59

44

38

37

34

Will Gautam Adani make it to the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026?

Mar 26, 9:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.55%chance

7406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

131

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

Will a Russian university make the top 50 before 2035?

Jan 15, 8:37 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

38.08%chance

5325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

Will Indoensia become one of worlds top 10 economies (nominal GDP) by 2040?

Mar 1, 6:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.15%chance

5324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

88

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