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In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.54%chance

22963339

OptionVotes

YES

2667

618

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

YES

2950

638

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Dec 2, 5:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.02%chance

625888

OptionVotes

YES

1218

922

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

24.72%chance

321957

OptionVotes

YES

1802

300

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

1225

592

Will Patrick Rothfuss finish writing the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicles by 2030?

Feb 12, 11:12 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

68.77%chance

231333

OptionVotes

YES

1607

274

Will Scott Alexander write another post about Lumina before 2030?

Oct 2, 2:02 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

71.44%chance

8690

OptionVotes

YES

1582

632

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

YES

1233

811

Donald Trump claims he intends to write a memoir about second presidential term by the end of 2030?

Apr 4, 10:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.23%chance

9246

OptionVotes

YES

1005

995

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

952

Will Apple’s FSKit be sufficient to implement a read-write OpenZFS port on macOS by End of 2026?

Sep 21, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

952

How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

Dec 21, 8:09 PMDec 31, 7:53 PM

OptionProbability

Kandel, Dudai & Mayford (2014) "The Molecular and Systems Biology of Memory"

Auletta (2011) “Cognitive biology” Chapter 17

Michaelian (2011) “Generative memory”

Michaelian & Sutton (2017) “Memory”

Kandel (2009) "The Biology of Memory: A Forty-Year Perspective”

Schacter (1997) "Searching For Memory"

Ortega-de San Luis & Ryan (2022) "Understanding the physical basis of memory: Molecular mechanisms of the engram”

Schacter & Addis (2007) “The cognitive neuroscience of constructive memory: remembering the past and imagining the future”

Morimoto & Koshland (1991) "Short-term and long-term memory in single cells"

Frise (2023) “Epistemological Problems of Memory”

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In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Will Patrick Rothfuss finish writing the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicles by 2030?

Will Scott Alexander write another post about Lumina before 2030?

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

Donald Trump claims he intends to write a memoir about second presidential term by the end of 2030?

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Will Apple’s FSKit be sufficient to implement a read-write OpenZFS port on macOS by End of 2026?

How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

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