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Prediction markets for Write

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42%chance

24472046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2857

450

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.14%chance

10914299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3638

469

Will CGP Grey write a book?

Jul 7, 11:38 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.97%chance

432450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

939

Will trump say or write "effective altruism"?

Sep 17, 4:52 AMApr 30, 4:51 AM

35.51%chance

311830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1901

1210

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

592

Will Patrick Rothfuss finish writing the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicles by 2030?

Feb 12, 11:12 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

68.77%chance

231333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1607

274

Will I write for 2 hours a day for the next month?

Nov 6, 11:11 AMDec 6, 11:10 AM

48.03%chance

16995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

961

Will Scott Alexander write another post about Lumina before 2030?

Oct 2, 2:02 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

71.44%chance

8690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1582

632

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.09%chance

5532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

940

📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?

Sep 11, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.72%chance

16465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

933

Donald Trump claims he intends to write a memoir about second presidential term by the end of 2030?

Apr 4, 10:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.28%chance

9247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

994

[Ṁ$1000 bounty per] How many errors will be found in "We Didn't Write the Weights" (199 AI-history entries) before 2027?

Oct 13, 12:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

4

5

Above 5

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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