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In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

23565497

OptionVotes

YES

2697

587

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

YES

2950

638

Who will learn to write first? My left hand or my robot hand?

Feb 8, 2:32 AMSep 16, 6:59 AM

28.2%chance

707024

OptionVotes

YES

1596

627

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

1225

592

Will Patrick Rothfuss finish writing the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicles by 2030?

Feb 12, 11:12 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

68.77%chance

231333

OptionVotes

YES

1607

274

Will Scott Alexander write another post about Lumina before 2030?

Oct 2, 2:02 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

71.44%chance

8690

OptionVotes

YES

1582

632

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.09%chance

5532

OptionVotes

YES

1064

940

📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?

Sep 11, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.72%chance

16465

OptionVotes

YES

1156

933

Donald Trump claims he intends to write a memoir about second presidential term by the end of 2030?

Apr 4, 10:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.28%chance

9247

OptionVotes

YES

1006

994

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

56.94%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

1150

870

Will Apple’s FSKit be sufficient to implement a read-write OpenZFS port on macOS by End of 2026?

Sep 21, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

952

How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

Dec 21, 8:09 PMDec 31, 7:53 PM

OptionProbability

Kandel, Dudai & Mayford (2014) "The Molecular and Systems Biology of Memory"

Auletta (2011) “Cognitive biology” Chapter 17

Michaelian (2011) “Generative memory”

Michaelian & Sutton (2017) “Memory”

Kandel (2009) "The Biology of Memory: A Forty-Year Perspective”

Schacter (1997) "Searching For Memory"

Ortega-de San Luis & Ryan (2022) "Understanding the physical basis of memory: Molecular mechanisms of the engram”

Schacter & Addis (2007) “The cognitive neuroscience of constructive memory: remembering the past and imagining the future”

Morimoto & Koshland (1991) "Short-term and long-term memory in single cells"

Frise (2023) “Epistemological Problems of Memory”

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In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Who will learn to write first? My left hand or my robot hand?

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Will Patrick Rothfuss finish writing the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicles by 2030?

Will Scott Alexander write another post about Lumina before 2030?

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?

Donald Trump claims he intends to write a memoir about second presidential term by the end of 2030?

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Will Apple’s FSKit be sufficient to implement a read-write OpenZFS port on macOS by End of 2026?

How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

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