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In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

23364195

OptionVotes

YES

2697

587

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

YES

2950

638

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

33%chance

5711974

OptionVotes

YES

1490

593

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Dec 2, 5:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.33%chance

686799

OptionVotes

YES

1086

959

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

27%chance

485185

OptionVotes

YES

1731

325

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

1225

592

Will Patrick Rothfuss finish writing the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicles by 2030?

Feb 12, 11:12 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

68.77%chance

231333

OptionVotes

YES

1607

274

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

YES

1233

811

Donald Trump claims he intends to write a memoir about second presidential term by the end of 2030?

Apr 4, 10:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.28%chance

9247

OptionVotes

YES

1006

994

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

952

Will Apple’s FSKit be sufficient to implement a read-write OpenZFS port on macOS by End of 2026?

Sep 21, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

952

How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

Dec 21, 8:09 PMDec 31, 7:53 PM

OptionProbability

Kandel, Dudai & Mayford (2014) "The Molecular and Systems Biology of Memory"

Auletta (2011) “Cognitive biology” Chapter 17

Michaelian (2011) “Generative memory”

Michaelian & Sutton (2017) “Memory”

Kandel (2009) "The Biology of Memory: A Forty-Year Perspective”

Schacter (1997) "Searching For Memory"

Ortega-de San Luis & Ryan (2022) "Understanding the physical basis of memory: Molecular mechanisms of the engram”

Schacter & Addis (2007) “The cognitive neuroscience of constructive memory: remembering the past and imagining the future”

Morimoto & Koshland (1991) "Short-term and long-term memory in single cells"

Frise (2023) “Epistemological Problems of Memory”

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In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Will Patrick Rothfuss finish writing the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicles by 2030?

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

Donald Trump claims he intends to write a memoir about second presidential term by the end of 2030?

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Will Apple’s FSKit be sufficient to implement a read-write OpenZFS port on macOS by End of 2026?

How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

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