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Prediction markets for Write to Earn

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

When will the median software engineer working today be unemployable due to AI?

Mar 15, 1:53 AMMar 22, 3:59 AM

18951

OptionProbability

2027-2030

2037-2040

2024-2027

2034-2037

2030-2034

35

33

14

10

7

Will humans remain better at clever turns of phrase and great illustrations, as Wired claims?

Nov 2, 3:43 PMNov 3, 2:37 PM

41.7%chance

6320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

Will "Zootopia 3" be released by the end of 2030?

Dec 2, 6:07 AMDec 31, 11:58 PM

47.28%chance

6135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

Help characterize the next 12 months of AI development and societal impact

Mar 27, 11:16 PM

00

Bounty for TikTok Ban Analysis: Explain why TikTok should or shouldn't be banned, and if you think Congress will do so

Mar 30, 6:26 PM

00

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