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Prediction markets for Writing in the Margins

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.82%chance

1910007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7878

2845

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6632

3220

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

What will the House popular vote margin be in 2026? (% voting D - % voting R)

Dec 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32886

OptionProbability

8% to 10%

6% to 8%

10% to 12%

4% to 6%

2% to 4%

12% to 14%

0% to 2%

Above 14%

-2% to 0%

Below -2%

25

20

16

11

7

7

6

4

3

2

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM

47.29%chance

9169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

Will GiveWell fund Community salt substitution by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.06%chance

9153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

167

Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 8, 11:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

42.02%chance

9137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

28

Which of the Following 2026 Senate Races will be the closest?

Jan 15, 7:45 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

8116

OptionProbability

Alaska

Ohio

North Carolina

Michigan

Maine

45

30

11

7

6

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