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Prediction markets for Writing in the Margins

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.43%chance

233162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

705

What will the House popular vote margin be in 2026? (% voting D - % voting R)

Dec 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11877

OptionProbability

6% to 8%

4% to 6%

8% to 10%

2% to 4%

0% to 2%

10% to 12%

12% to 14%

Above 14%

-2% to 0%

Below -2%

24

18

15

11

9

7

5

5

4

2

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM

47.29%chance

9169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

Will GiveWell fund Community salt substitution by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.52%chance

8143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

171

Which of the Following 2026 Senate Races will be the closest?

Jan 15, 7:45 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

330

OptionProbability

Alaska

North Carolina

Michigan

Maine

Ohio

44

23

11

11

11

Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 8, 11:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

25.69%chance

323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

52

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