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Prediction markets for Writing in the Margins

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.63%chance

199507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7378

2976

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

What will the House popular vote margin be in 2026? (% voting D - % voting R)

Dec 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32578

OptionProbability

8% to 10%

6% to 8%

10% to 12%

4% to 6%

2% to 4%

0% to 2%

12% to 14%

-2% to 0%

Above 14%

Below -2%

27

24

16

9

6

5

5

3

3

2

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM

47.29%chance

9169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

Will GiveWell fund Community salt substitution by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.06%chance

9153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

167

Which of the Following 2026 Senate Races will be the closest?

Jan 15, 7:45 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

8116

OptionProbability

Alaska

Ohio

North Carolina

Michigan

Maine

45

30

11

7

6

Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 8, 11:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

35.48%chance

8107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

35

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