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Top stories

Grok AI App Surpasses Google, Ranks 5th Overall and 2nd in Productivity Globally with 1.25M Ratings

Grok AI App Surpasses Google, Ranks 5th Overall and 2nd in Productivity Globally with 1.25M Ratings

Authors

6

7 months ago

Prediction markets for WSJ

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.68%chance

195588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10173

3993

What will be the outcome of Trump's lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal?

Jul 19, 7:42 AMJan 1, 8:41 AM

434822

OptionProbability

Settlement outside of court

Court ruling in favor of WSJ

Court ruling in favor of Trump

79

20

2

If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

Feb 18, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.46%chance

142255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1583

632

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.52%chance

292067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

655

Will Trump's lawsuit against the WSJ go to trial?

Jul 19, 5:09 PMJul 18, 4:59 PM

18.32%chance

211812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2111

474

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

Jun 18, 4:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.73%chance

101260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

535

Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMFeb 3, 12:59 AM

40.39%chance

16917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

954

Will Anthropic’s revenue run rate overtake OpenAI’s in 2026

Feb 25, 11:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.14%chance

14860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

1080

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will the WSJ do an expose-style piece on Bryan Johnson before 2027?

Feb 11, 10:28 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

60.75%chance

5103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

297

Will Hunter x Hunter get a new anime adaptation before the end of 2030?

Dec 21, 5:45 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

54.75%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

909

Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?

Dec 5, 3:27 PMNov 9, 6:59 AM

49.89%chance

352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

998

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