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Top stories

North Yorkshire Moor Wildfire Triggers 18 Explosions of WWII Bombs on Former 1940s Tank Training Ground

Natural Disasters

North Yorkshire Moor Wildfire Triggers 18 Explosions of WWII Bombs on Former 1940s Tank Training Ground

Authors

8

7 months ago

Prediction markets for WWII

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

3.66%chance

128481329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5129

195

Will Wikipedia on or before January 1st 2030 list WWIII as having started already on April 1, 2026

Mar 14, 4:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.43%chance

347740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3530

283

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?

Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

73.39%chance

387268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1661

602

Will the events leading to WWIII be directly caused by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand (the band)?

Aug 15, 11:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.47%chance

211811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2736

884

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2030?

Feb 8, 8:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9%chance

191517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2254

756

WWIII stock

Apr 9, 8:33 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

16347

OptionProbability

NO

YES

309

254

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2050?

Feb 8, 8:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.56%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

43

Will Spain switch to GMT/Western Europe Time by 2030?

Apr 5, 7:16 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

28.98%chance

6199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

111

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2040?

Feb 8, 8:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.92%chance

9194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

111

Will the World Tension Index get above 100 in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:41 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

35%chance

5140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Will someone famous thought to have died be revealed to have not actually died (before August 2027)?

Nov 16, 8:39 AMAug 2, 6:59 AM

55.71%chance

7133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

128

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