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Top stories

North Yorkshire Moor Wildfire Triggers 18 Explosions of WWII Bombs on Former 1940s Tank Training Ground

Natural Disasters

North Yorkshire Moor Wildfire Triggers 18 Explosions of WWII Bombs on Former 1940s Tank Training Ground

Authors

8

11 months ago

Prediction markets for WWII

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

4.03%chance

130483919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4880

205

Will Wikipedia on or before January 1st 2030 list WWIII as having started already on April 1, 2026

Mar 14, 4:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.72%chance

368759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3047

328

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?

Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

72.8%chance

387293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1636

611

Will the events leading to WWIII be directly caused by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand (the band)?

Aug 15, 11:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.47%chance

211811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2736

884

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2030?

Feb 8, 8:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9%chance

191517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2254

756

By the end of 2027: Germany will be actively engaged in war or there will be acts of war on German Territory.

Apr 4, 9:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

13832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

385

175

WWIII stock

Apr 9, 8:33 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

16347

OptionProbability

NO

YES

309

254

Will the World Tension Index get above 100 in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:41 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

47%chance

8230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2050?

Feb 8, 8:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27%chance

8228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

54

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2040?

Feb 8, 8:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.37%chance

11206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

254

123

Will Spain switch to GMT/Western Europe Time by 2030?

Apr 5, 7:16 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

28.98%chance

6199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

111

Will someone famous thought to have died be revealed to have not actually died (before August 2027)?

Nov 16, 8:39 AMAug 2, 6:59 AM

52.07%chance

8143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

158

138

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