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Prediction markets for XR

Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?

Feb 18, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9716912

OptionProbability

Energy harvesting + sensor ubiquity

Bitcoin + AI

AI + Genetics

AI + Medicine

Social media + AI

Bitcoin + XR

AI + Spatial Computing

AI + Internet

AI + Robotics

AI + Physics

Fintech + AI

AI + Advanced Materials

AI + Bioengineering

Quantum Computing + Materials Science

3D Printing + Materials Science

AI+Blockchain

BCI + Internet

Mobile Technology + Social Media

XR + AI

AI + Prediction Markets

AI + IoT

AI + VR

Nuclear Energy + Transportation

Wearable Technology + Telemedicine

GPS + Real-time Traffic Data

Haptics + BCI

AI + fossil fuels

Vertical farming + Solar

BCI + Remote sensing

Decentralized IP Verification and Education (Blockchain Credentials)

BCI + Dating Apps

Predictive Markets and Constitutional Alignment of AI

34

33

33

32

29

28

28

25

24

23

23

23

23

22

20

19

19

18

17

17

17

16

14

14

14

13

12

11

11

8

5

3

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.94%chance

989746

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1980

1964

Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 10 years?

Feb 16, 7:20 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

637366

OptionProbability

AI + Internet

AI + Robotics

AI + Biotech

AI + weapons

AI + Computers

AI + road vehicles

AI + Medicine

AI + Brain Computer Interface (BCI)

XR + AI

Bitcoin + AI

Room temp superconductors + fusion

Robotics + space

AI + Hypnodrones

GPS + Semiconductors

Bitcoin + Robotics

Bitcoin + XR

95

77

69

30

26

20

19

14

14

13

10

10

7

6

4

1

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.99%chance

475909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

800

Will a sex scandal negatively affect the reputation of AI xrisk in the next five years?

Jun 18, 9:55 PMJun 19, 4:59 AM

71.02%chance

562877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

834

Will a VR/AR headset sell more units than the highest-selling game console (~155m units) before 2030? 🎮🕹️ 👾🖥️

Mar 17, 11:25 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

25%chance

13713

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

862

Meta's xr glasses vs Apple's xr glasses

Jan 9, 11:27 PMJan 16, 11:25 PM

2175

OptionProbability

Apple's glasses are released first

Apple makes more profit

Apple sells more glasses

57

50

35

Will Google shutdown Android XR before 2035?

Dec 13, 8:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

83.66%chance

7162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

226

44

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